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Forecast method and system for power grid rainstorm disaster forecast deviation based on dominant circulation

A rainstorm leading technology, applied in forecasting, weather condition forecasting, electrical digital data processing, etc., can solve the problems of power grid rainstorm disaster forecast deviation, large difference in the accuracy of power grid secondary disaster forecast, and large difference in forecast ability of rainstorm process. , to achieve the effect of strong practicability and clear method and thinking

Active Publication Date: 2021-08-31
STATE GRID HUNAN ELECTRIC POWER +2
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  • Summary
  • Abstract
  • Description
  • Claims
  • Application Information

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

[0006] The present invention provides a method and system for forecasting deviations of power grid rainstorm disaster forecast based on dominant circulation, which is used to solve the large difference in the ability of the existing forecast for the rainstorm process under the action of different dominant circulation, and then accurately forecast the secondary disaster of the power grid rainstorm Technical issues with large degree differences

Method used

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  • Forecast method and system for power grid rainstorm disaster forecast deviation based on dominant circulation
  • Forecast method and system for power grid rainstorm disaster forecast deviation based on dominant circulation
  • Forecast method and system for power grid rainstorm disaster forecast deviation based on dominant circulation

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Embodiment 1

[0045]A kind of forecasting method of the power grid rainstorm disaster forecast deviation based on dominant circulation of the present invention, comprises the following steps:

[0046] S1: Obtain daily historical precipitation data and circulation data on different isobaric surfaces of the area to be forecasted over the years (nearly 30 years in this example) from the meteorological department.

[0047] S2: Determine the rainstorm events in the area to be predicted based on historical precipitation data, and determine the size of the rainstorm area, the shape of the rainstorm belt, the location of the center of the rainstorm, and the duration of precipitation according to the range of the rainstorm in the rainstorm event.

[0048] If there are 3 or more observation stations in a day with a precipitation process of more than 50mm, it is determined that the day is a rainstorm day, and if the coincidence rate of the observation stations with rainstorms for two consecutive days i...

Embodiment 2

[0057] This embodiment takes a precipitation process in Hunan on July 7-9, 2019 as an example to illustrate the method for forecasting the forecast deviation of the power grid rainstorm disaster based on the dominant circulation of the present invention, including the following steps:

[0058] (1) Data collection and analysis.

[0059] S1: Collect daily historical precipitation data and circulation data on different isobaric surfaces from 97 basic meteorological stations in Hunan Province from 1989 to 2018 from the meteorological department.

[0060] S2: Use step S2 in Embodiment 1 to determine the size of the rainstorm area, the shape of the rainstorm belt, the location of the center of the rainstorm, and the duration of precipitation.

[0061] According to the statistics of precipitation data in the past 30 years, the heavy rain in Hunan Province is divided into quasi-square rainbands in central Hunan, east-west rectangular rainbands from southwest to northeast Hunan, east-w...

Embodiment 3

[0083] The present invention also provides a computer system, including a memory, a processor, and a computer program stored in the memory and operable on the processor. When the processor executes the computer program, the steps in any of the above embodiments are realized.

[0084] In summary, the present invention can provide reference for the credibility of power grid rainstorm disaster forecast by introducing the grid rainstorm disaster forecast bias, and provide support for the formulation of power grid disaster prevention and control plans and power grid dispatching plans.

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Abstract

The invention discloses a method and system for forecasting deviations of power grid rainstorm disaster forecasts based on dominant circulation. The method includes: acquiring daily historical precipitation data and circulation data on different isobaric surfaces in the area to be forecasted; determining the area to be forecasted The rainstorm events, as well as the size of the rainstorm area, the shape of the rainstorm belt, the location of the center of the rainstorm, and the duration of precipitation; according to the daily circulation data on different isobaric surfaces, determine the dominant circulation system when the rainstorm occurs, and according to the direct flow of precipitation caused by the dominant circulation system Determine the index of the dominant circulation system for physical reasons; establish a historical database of rainstorm events under different dominant circulations; query the historical database to calculate the probability of precipitation of different magnitudes in the area to be predicted; obtain the forecast deviation of power grid rainstorm disasters under different dominant circulations ; Determine the occurrence probability of secondary disasters in the power grid during the rainstorm. The invention can provide reference for the credibility of the power grid rainstorm disaster forecast.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the field of power grid protection, in particular to a method and system for forecasting deviations of power grid rainstorm disaster forecasts based on dominant circulation. Background technique [0002] In recent years, with the rapid development of China's power grid, the operating voltage level of the power grid system has been continuously improved, and the scale of the power grid has been continuously expanded. With the construction of high-voltage, long-distance transmission lines such as "West-to-East Power Transmission", important lines and substations are distributed in various topographical areas. During the summer rainy season, heavy rain disasters occur frequently. The heavy rain will bring a large amount of precipitation in a short period of time, which will have a huge scouring effect on the surface and easily cause secondary landslide disasters. The landslides that occur near the tower will damage the base of the...

Claims

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Patents(China)
IPC IPC(8): G01W1/10G06F16/2458G06Q10/04G06Q10/06G06Q50/06
CPCG01W1/10G06Q10/04G06Q10/0631G06Q50/06G06F16/2462
Inventor 陆佳政李丽冯涛郭俊李波杨莉
Owner STATE GRID HUNAN ELECTRIC POWER