A Modeling Method of Wind Power Forecasting Error Based on Meteorological Pattern Recognition
A wind power forecasting and error modeling technology, applied in character and pattern recognition, forecasting, CAD numerical modeling, etc., can solve the problems of conservative economic scheduling results, increased precision, and coordination difficulties in "analytical calculations", etc. problem, to achieve the effect of accurate modeling of wind power prediction error, improved accuracy, and good analytical performance
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[0077] Embodiments of the present invention will be described in detail below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings.
[0078] In order to solve the technical problems existing in the prior art, this embodiment provides a wind power prediction error modeling method based on meteorological pattern recognition, and obtains its probability density function by modeling the probability distribution of the wind power prediction error This formula provides a more reasonable calculation basis for stochastic economic dispatch of power systems considering wind power prediction errors.
[0079] This embodiment does not centralize and analyze the wind power prediction errors in all cases, but considers the impact of meteorological conditions (wind speed, wind direction, air temperature, air pressure) on the wind power prediction accuracy, and obtains by clustering analysis of historical meteorological data Statistical analysis and modeling are carried out for the wind power forecas...
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