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A Modeling Method of Wind Power Forecasting Error Based on Meteorological Pattern Recognition

A wind power forecasting and error modeling technology, applied in character and pattern recognition, forecasting, CAD numerical modeling, etc., can solve the problems of conservative economic scheduling results, increased precision, and coordination difficulties in "analytical calculations", etc. problem, to achieve the effect of accurate modeling of wind power prediction error, improved accuracy, and good analytical performance

Active Publication Date: 2022-03-15
WUHAN UNIV +1
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Problems solved by technology

This approach essentially ignores the differences in the prediction accuracy of the same forecasting method under different weather conditions. For example, the forecast results may be more accurate in the smooth and sunny weather conditions, but may be more accurate in the windy and windy weather conditions. poor
Therefore, mixing all forecast errors together in statistical modeling will increase the difficulty of coordinating "accuracy" and "analytical calculation" on the one hand, and on the other hand may make the results of stochastic economic dispatch conservative

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  • A Modeling Method of Wind Power Forecasting Error Based on Meteorological Pattern Recognition
  • A Modeling Method of Wind Power Forecasting Error Based on Meteorological Pattern Recognition
  • A Modeling Method of Wind Power Forecasting Error Based on Meteorological Pattern Recognition

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Embodiment Construction

[0077] Embodiments of the present invention will be described in detail below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings.

[0078] In order to solve the technical problems existing in the prior art, this embodiment provides a wind power prediction error modeling method based on meteorological pattern recognition, and obtains its probability density function by modeling the probability distribution of the wind power prediction error This formula provides a more reasonable calculation basis for stochastic economic dispatch of power systems considering wind power prediction errors.

[0079] This embodiment does not centralize and analyze the wind power prediction errors in all cases, but considers the impact of meteorological conditions (wind speed, wind direction, air temperature, air pressure) on the wind power prediction accuracy, and obtains by clustering analysis of historical meteorological data Statistical analysis and modeling are carried out for the wind power forecas...

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Abstract

The present invention relates to power grid wind power forecasting technology, in particular to a wind power forecasting error modeling method based on meteorological pattern recognition, including obtaining corresponding meteorological models by performing k-means clustering analysis on historical meteorological data, and according to each meteorological model Meteorological data characteristics, training support vector machine classifier, and using it to divide the historical wind power forecast error data into sub-datasets under each meteorological model, and statistically analyzing these sub-datasets to obtain corresponding probability density curves, and then based on the general The distribution model is obtained by least squares fitting to obtain the probability density model of wind power forecast error under each meteorological model, and the modeling of wind power forecast error is completed. This method takes into account the impact of meteorological factors on the accuracy of wind power forecasting, making the modeling results of wind power forecasting errors more accurate; the fitting effect of the general distribution model is better, and the analytical performance of the expression is better; it provides accurate wind power forecasting errors Probability Density Model.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the technical field of grid wind power forecasting, and in particular relates to a wind power forecasting error modeling method based on meteorological pattern recognition. Background technique [0002] At present, the problem of wind power accommodation is to judge the future of the system under the premise that the wind power and load forecast results in the next day or several hours are given, and the system uses conventional unit output (including start-up and stop) as adjustment means and meets certain operating constraints. How much wind power can be accommodated. If the wind power prediction error is not considered, the actual value of wind power may be greater or smaller than the planned value of wind power at a certain point in the future, which will lead to the phenomenon of wind curtailment and load shedding, which is not conducive to the consumption of clean energy and will also It will have adverse effects on the ...

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Patents(China)
IPC IPC(8): G06F30/27G06K9/62G06Q10/04G06Q10/06G06Q50/06G06F111/10G06F113/06
CPCG06Q10/04G06Q10/06393G06Q50/06G06F18/23213G06F18/2411
Inventor 柯德平刘念璋牛四清杨健刘健柳玉姜尚光
Owner WUHAN UNIV
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