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Omnibearing electric power economic prosperity index analysis system and analysis method thereof

A technology of prosperity index and power economy, which is applied in the analysis system and field of all-round power economic prosperity index, can solve the problems of little relationship between power prosperity fluctuation and macro economy, lack of research on power economic prosperity index, and limited research scope, etc.

Inactive Publication Date: 2020-05-22
STATE GRID JIANGSU ELECTRIC POWER CO LTD SUQIAN POWER SUPPLY BRANCH
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  • Abstract
  • Description
  • Claims
  • Application Information

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Problems solved by technology

[0004] Although the existing research on the prosperity index is relatively mature, the research on the power economic prosperity index is relatively scarce, and the research scope is limited to the power demand cycle, the relationship between power consumption and economy, and the reform of the power industry. less macroeconomic relationships

Method used

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  • Omnibearing electric power economic prosperity index analysis system and analysis method thereof
  • Omnibearing electric power economic prosperity index analysis system and analysis method thereof
  • Omnibearing electric power economic prosperity index analysis system and analysis method thereof

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Embodiment 1

[0113] Embodiment 1: The system of the present invention is used in the analysis of the prosperity index of power consumption in Jiangsu Province

[0114] In the third quarter of 2019, the consensus index of economic prosperity was 70.64, 1.36 points lower than the previous period, and the overall trend slowed down slightly. The leading index in the fourth quarter of 2019 was 70.56, which was only 0.08 points lower than the consensus index in the third quarter. From the perspective of the overall trend, it was basically flat. It is expected that the overall economy of the province will remain relatively stable in the fourth quarter. (From 2015 to now, the correct rate of forecast direction is 83.33%, and the data of 8 periods in the past two years is correct 5 periods. In the third quarter, Sino-US trade frictions stalemate, and the continuous outbreak of various conflicts has caused the macro economy to be affected by a large number of uncertain factors, which will inevitably ...

Embodiment 2

[0115] Embodiment 2: the system of the present invention is used for the prosperity index of electricity used in the second industry of Jiangsu Province

[0116] In the third quarter of the province's secondary industry electricity economic prosperity index, the consistent index of the province's secondary industry added value was 71.60, 0.40 points higher than the previous period, and the upward trend slowed down (the growth rate of the secondary industry's added value released by the government was 6.6% for three consecutive quarters. , 6.6%, 6.5%, the growth rate in the third quarter was stable with a decline); the leading index was 71.68, and it is expected that the growth rate of the added value of the province's secondary production in the fourth quarter will maintain a stable development trend. (From 2015 to now, the correct rate of forecast direction is 83.33%, and the data of 8 periods in the past two years are correct 7 periods.)

Embodiment 3

[0117] Embodiment 3: The system of the present invention is used for the electricity boom index of the tertiary industry in Jiangsu Province

[0118] In the third quarter of the province's tertiary industry electricity economic prosperity index, the province's tertiary industry added value consistent index was 72.16, 3.2 points lower than the previous period (the growth rate of the tertiary industry's added value released by the government was 7.0%, 6.7%, and 6.6% for three consecutive quarters, respectively. %, gradually decreased, but the decline in the third quarter slowed down significantly); the leading index was 71.60, and it is expected that the growth rate of the added value of the province's tertiary industries in the fourth quarter will slow down, presenting a short-term stable platform. (From 2015 to now, the correct rate of forecast direction is 72.22%, and the data of 8 periods in the past two years is correct for 5 periods.)

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Abstract

The invention discloses an omnibearing electric power economic prosperity index analysis system and an analysis method thereof, and relates to the field of research on a relationship between the electric power economic prosperity index and economic growth. The system comprises an index construction module, an index prediction module, an index compiling module and a signal compiling module. The analysis method comprises the following steps: firstly, selecting an index for constructing a consistency index; then predicting the index, taking a predicted value as a leading index and taking an actual value as a consistency index; finally, compiling a signal lamp system. By adopting the interdisciplinary method, taking cross-correlation analysis in statistics as a basis, and combining mature methods in the fields of economy, finance, industry, foreign trade and the like, prosperity analysis is completely introduced into the power industry, a novel statistical power economy prosperity index ismined and extracted through multi-dimensional power utilization data, provincial macroeconomic operation conditions and development situations are objectively reflected, an important function of 'looking at economy through power' is realized, and quantitative indexes are provided for the economic operation trend.

Description

technical field [0001] The analysis system and analysis method of the all-round power economic prosperity index of the present invention relate to the research field of the relationship between the electric power economic prosperity index and economic growth. Background technique [0002] Since Kraft proposed the relationship between economic growth and energy consumption, many scholars have devoted themselves to the research of this issue, and the correlation between electricity and economy is one of the hot spots. However, the relationship between electricity and the economy is not just a simple causal relationship. For example, affected by multiple factors such as the transformation of industrial structure, technological progress, and the increase in the proportion of the tertiary industry, there will be deviations between negative growth in electricity and positive economic growth. Previous studies have used econometric tools to analyze the correlation between electricit...

Claims

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Application Information

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IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/06G06Q50/06G06Q10/04G06N20/00G06F17/18
CPCG06Q10/06393G06Q10/04G06Q10/06375G06Q50/06G06N20/00G06F17/18
Inventor 高骞刘云云彭恩志李江王秀茹徐超杨俊义刘凯李琥李冰洁葛毅史静
Owner STATE GRID JIANGSU ELECTRIC POWER CO LTD SUQIAN POWER SUPPLY BRANCH
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