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Non-continuous electric power material demand prediction method and system

A technology for forecasting power materials and demand, applied in forecasting, resources, instruments, etc., can solve problems such as power grid damage, impact on power supply, economic loss, etc., and achieve the effects of strong adaptability, convenient operation, and improved accuracy

Pending Publication Date: 2021-03-09
STATE GRID BEIJING ELECTRIC POWER +1
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  • Summary
  • Abstract
  • Description
  • Claims
  • Application Information

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

[0002] In recent years, typhoons and rainstorms have occurred frequently, causing damage to the power grid, affecting power supply, and causing economic losses

Method used

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  • Non-continuous electric power material demand prediction method and system
  • Non-continuous electric power material demand prediction method and system
  • Non-continuous electric power material demand prediction method and system

Examples

Experimental program
Comparison scheme
Effect test

Embodiment approach

[0047] reference figure 1 and figure 2 The non-connestive power supplies prediction method of the present invention includes the following steps:

[0048] Get samples in power supplies;

[0049] Application of fuzzy clustering theory to cluster the factors affecting the factors of power supplies to form new classes affecting factors;

[0050] Calculation of new categories of factors on load on loads by using gray absolute correlation degree theory;

[0051] According to the amount of power of the load on the load and the amount of power required to calculate the number of demands of the power supplies.

[0052] There is a sample of M power demand affecting factors. Each power supplies affecting the factors of N power supplies affecting the need for continuous observation, wherein the observation matrix X is:

[0053]

[0054]

[0055]

[0056]

[0057]Among them, i means that the influencing factors of the IP power supplies, and J represents the J20, X i Representation of...

Embodiment 1

[0084] Taking a 10kV transformer with a grid as an example, calculate the number of non-conneity power supplies, the influencing factors are natural disasters, disasters, disaster accumulation duration, the average area coefficient of disaster area, 10kV transformers caused by natural disasters due to natural disasters The number of demand is shown in Table 1:

[0085] Table 1

[0086]

[0087] 1) Affecting factors clustering calculation

[0088] In order to eliminate strong correlation between the influencing factors, accurately predict, a number of factors that have been classified by the fuzzy clustering method, which will be classified into a class, which is convenient for analyzing the number of demand for power supplies. Overall impact;

[0089] With M samples, each sample includes N sample elements that continue to observe, and the observation data matrix X is:

[0090]

[0091] In this embodiment, there are four samples, each sample including six sample elements that c...

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Abstract

The invention discloses a non-continuous electric power material demand prediction method and system. The method comprises the following steps: obtaining an electric power material demand influence factor sample; clustering each electric power material demand influence factor sample by applying a fuzzy clustering theory to form a new influence factor class; calculating the action quantity of the new influence factor class on the load by using a grey absolute correlation degree theory; and calculating a prediction value of the demand quantity of the electric power materials according to the action quantity of the influence factor new class on the load and the weight of the action quantity. The method and the system can accurately predict the demand of the non-continuous electric power materials.

Description

Technical field [0001] The present invention relates to a prediction method and system of material demand, and more particularly to a non-connestive power supplies demand prediction method and system. Background technique [0002] In recent years, typhoon and heavy rain disasters have frequent, resulting in damage to the grid, affecting power supply, causing economic losses. One of the important responsibilities of the power supplies management department is to provide adequate materials for power grid repair work. Due to many types of electricity materials, the storage cost is relatively high, achieving full variety stocks are not realistic, so accurate power supplies demand forecast is the core problem that managers need to care. Power supplies demand forecasts must meet the needs of grid repair work in natural disasters, but also to fully consider the management and control of storage costs. Inventive content [0003] SUMMARY OF THE INVENTION It is an object of the present in...

Claims

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Applications(China)
IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/04G06Q10/06G06Q50/06G06F16/906G06F17/16
CPCG06Q10/04G06Q10/06315G06Q50/06G06F16/906G06F17/16
Inventor 王铁铮潘焜胡亚楠喻晓
Owner STATE GRID BEIJING ELECTRIC POWER
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