Failure early warning analysis method for reservoir scheduling rule under influence of climate change

A technology of climate change and early warning analysis, applied in the direction of climate sustainability, data processing applications, instruments, etc., can solve the problems of lack of scientific and reasonable explanation, lower application value of Top-down method, poor applicability, etc.

Active Publication Date: 2021-05-18
CHINA THREE GORGES CORPORATION +1
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  • Description
  • Claims
  • Application Information

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Problems solved by technology

[0003]However, there are the following problems in the existing technology: (1) Both the Top-down method and the Bottom-up method have solved the reservoir operation rules under the influence of climate change" "How to change" the difficult problem, but it cannot answer the difficult problem of "when" the reservoir dispatching rules will change under the influence of climate change
(2) At present, the Top-down method mainly assumes the time period of future climate change in a subjective way to carry out research on reservoir adaptive regulation, but this lack of scientific and reasonable explanation reduces the application value of the Top-down method
(3) Although there have been Dutch sch

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  • Failure early warning analysis method for reservoir scheduling rule under influence of climate change
  • Failure early warning analysis method for reservoir scheduling rule under influence of climate change
  • Failure early warning analysis method for reservoir scheduling rule under influence of climate change

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Embodiment 1

[0092] Such as figure 1 In, S1. GCM (Global Climate Model, Global Climate Model) provides large-scale temperature and precipitation prediction information under the condition of future climate change, and then uses downscaling and error correction technology to process, so that the temperature and precipitation prediction information is applicable to the region On a small scale, use hydrological models to predict runoff under future climate change scenarios;

[0093] S2. Based on the runoff prediction information obtained in S1, use the multivariate copula method (the Copula function describes the correlation between variables, in fact, it is a kind of function that connects the joint distribution function and their respective marginal distribution functions, also called is the connection function. Copula is a method of stochastic simulation considering the time-space correlation of runoff) to generate multiple sets of simulated runoff sequences; then use it as the input data ...

Embodiment 2

[0155] On the basis of Example 1, according to Figure 1~4 The calculation steps in , take a cascade reservoir system with power generation as the implementation object (from top to bottom: Reservoir-1, Reservoir-2, Reservoir-3; the basic parameters of each reservoir are as follows Figure 8 shown), combined with Figure 5-7 as well as Figures 9 to 12 , the failure warning analysis method of reservoir dispatching rules under the influence of climate change involved in the present invention is described in detail.

[0156] Such as Figure 5 As shown, the failure warning analysis method for reservoir dispatching rules under the influence of climate change provided in this embodiment includes the following steps:

[0157] Step 1. Determine two future climate change scenarios applicable to this example by evaluating the statistical characteristic indicators of the simulated effects of multiple GCMs (Global Climate Model, Global Climate Model) on temperature and precipitation -...

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Abstract

The invention relates to the technical field of reservoir scheduling, and provides a failure early warning analysis method of a reservoir scheduling rule under the influence of climate change, comprising the following steps: generating a plurality of groups of simulation runoff sequences according to air temperature and rainfall prediction information, a hydrological model and a stochastic simulation method under future climate change conditions; obtaining a plurality of groups of corresponding annual benefit samples based on a current reservoir scheduling rule; classifying the reservoir dispatching annual benefits by using the hydrological annual types to obtain classified reservoir dispatching annual benefits; through parameter estimation and goodness-of-fit test, screening an optimal probability distribution function suitable for the classified reservoir dispatching annual benefit out; based on the optimal probability distribution function and the acceptable risk level, determining a classified risk early warning threshold through inverse cumulative distribution calculation; by means of a probability change point analysis method, identifying the failure early warning time of the current reservoir scheduling rule under the future climate change condition. Through the steps, the time point when the reservoir regulation rule is changed can be prompted.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the technical field of reservoir dispatching in water conservancy project management, and in particular relates to a failure warning analysis method for reservoir dispatching rules under the influence of climate change. Background technique [0002] Climate change has changed the hydrometeorological conditions on a global and regional scale, breaking the original consistency conditions and bringing great challenges to water resources management. Reservoirs with good regulation and storage functions are effective engineering measures to deal with the adverse effects of climate change in water resource management in river basins. In recent decades, there has been growing recognition of the strategic need for reservoir adaptation to climate change. At present, the mainstream research methods for reservoir adaptive regulation can be summarized as: top-down (Top-down) method and bottom-up (Bottom-up) method. The former is to give ...

Claims

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Application Information

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IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/06G06Q50/06G06F17/16
CPCG06Q10/06375G06Q10/06312G06Q10/0635G06Q10/06393G06Q50/06G06F17/16Y02A90/10Y02A10/40G06Q10/04G06Q50/02G06F17/11
Inventor 张玮戴会超刘志武刘攀杨媛殷兆凯卢韦伟赵汗青翟然梁犁丽杨恒徐志翟俨伟刘琨
Owner CHINA THREE GORGES CORPORATION
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