Power-statistics combined seasonal climate prediction method based on predictable climate mode

Abstract

The invention discloses a power-statistics combined seasonal climate prediction method based on a predictable climate mode. A predictable climate mode for determining the annual tendency of the rainfall in the same period in the Chinese seasons is extracted by utilizing historical observation data, and a physical statistical model of the same period relation between the predictable climate mode and the annual tendency of target variables such as rainfall is established; predication of a climate mode by a dynamic mode is substituted into a physical statistical model, and prediction of interannual tendency of target variables such as rainfall is realized; and the predicted interannual tendency is superposed with the observation distance flatness of the last year to obtain the distance flatness prediction of the target variable. Compared with the defect of direct prediction of target variables such as Chinese rainfall in a power mode, the prediction capability of the power mode for main climate modes is fully utilized, and prediction of the predictable climate modes by the power mode is combined with a physical statistical model established according to historical data; and the optimal climate mode is selected through independent sample inspection, so that the prediction of the target variable is realized, and the accuracy of the prediction of the seasonal drought and flood in China can be effectively improved.

Description

technical field [0001] The present invention relates to the design and application of a dynamical-statistical combined Chinese seasonal climate prediction method based on a predictable climate model. In practical application, the present invention can provide better seasonal prediction results for meteorological elements such as precipitation and temperature than the direct prediction of dynamic models, and can provide scientific and technological support for important decisions such as national flood control and drought relief. Background technique [0002] Climate prediction is a complex and comprehensive scientific issue, and accurate climate prediction has long been a difficult problem in the field of international atmospheric science. Doing a good job in climate prediction and improving the level of climate prediction can provide strong scientific and technological support for national flood control and drought relief, disaster prevention and mitigation decisions, and h...

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Problems solved by technology

However, many studies have shown that due to the influence of atmospheric chaotic variability, the current dynamical models only have strong prediction capabilities for some major climate modes, but the actual prediction capabilities for meteorological elements such as precipitation cannot meet the needs of daily operations. need

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