Tropical cyclone landing process gale forecasting system based on ensemble forecasting model

Abstract

The invention discloses a tropical cyclone landing process gale forecasting system based on an ensemble forecasting model. The system comprises the following steps that a generalized initial value construction module constructs generalized initial values of a plurality of variables which have influence on a forecast quantity, and sends the generalized initial values to an initial value similarity judgment module; an initial value similarity judgment module discriminates the similarity of each single variable contained in the generalized initial value, determines n optimal similar TC and sends the n optimal similar TC to a gale ensemble forecasting module; the gale ensemble forecasting module obtains the n optimal similar TC to form n TC process gale fields, and the n TC process gale fields are gathered to obtain process gale information of the target TC; and the optimal forecasting scheme selection module calculates a forecasting accuracy TS score in a selected gale speed grade threshold by using the process gale information of the target TC, and obtains an optimal forecasting scheme model of the process gale of the target TC according to the forecasting accuracy TS score. The system has good forecasting performance on the gale in the TC landing process.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to a meteorological forecasting technology, in particular to a gale forecasting system for a landing tropical cyclone process based on an ensemble forecasting model. Background technique [0002] The current forecast of strong winds in the process of landfalling tropical cyclones generally adopts the numerical weather prediction (NWP) model. According to the actual situation of the atmosphere, under certain initial and boundary conditions, large-scale computers are used to perform numerical calculations to solve and describe the weather evolution process The equations of hydrodynamics and thermodynamics, the method of predicting the state of atmospheric movement and weather phenomena for a certain period of time in the future, numerical weather prediction is different from the classical weather forecasting method based on synoptic science, it is a quantitative and objective forecast, because In this way, numerical weather predicti...

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Problems solved by technology

[0003] The object of the present invention is to provide a kind of landfall tropical cyclone process gale forecast system based on ensemble forecasting model, for solving the problem of the process gale accuracy of forecasting landfall TC

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