Wind speed prediction method using MCP based on average wind speed correction

Abstract

The invention discloses a wind speed prediction method using an MCP based on average wind speed correction, and solves the problem that the uncertainty of an evaluation result is relatively large due to the fact that the MCP method in the prior art cannot give consideration to both the generating capacity and the average wind speed during wind measurement data processing. The method comprises the following steps of: S1, processing used wind speed data; S2, inferring to obtain complete wind measurement data of a target station by using a piecewise linear fitting method, and taking the complete wind measurement data as a wind speed reference time sequence V1; S3, inferring by using a Weibull fitting method to obtain complete wind measurement data of the target station, and taking the complete wind measurement data as a wind frequency reference time sequence V2; and S4, correcting the average wind speed according to the wind speed reference time sequence V1 and the wind frequency reference time sequence V2 to obtain a final predicted wind speed time sequence V. A scientific and accurate method for obtaining complete wind measurement data is provided for wind resource assessment of a distributed project, the uncertainty of traditional assessment is reduced, the assessment precision is improved, the calculation process is simple, and the method is suitable for daily business use.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the technical field of wind measurement data processing in wind resource assessment, in particular to a wind speed prediction method using MCP corrected based on average wind speed. Background technique [0002] Wind resource assessment is the core link of wind farm development, and plays an important role in the success or failure of wind farm efficiency and wind farm investment. As my country's wind power on-grid electricity price has been reduced year by year, and the development of wind farms has gradually shifted to the southeast mountainous areas with low wind speed and complex terrain, the profit and loss of wind farms have almost reached the balance point, so more stringent requirements are put forward for the accuracy of wind resource assessment. For some wind power projects, the development period is short, and there is often no long-term (at least one year) wind measurement data support. The investigation and evaluat...

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Problems solved by technology

[0005] The purpose of the present invention is to overcome the problem of large uncertainty in the evaluation results caused by the inability to take into account the power generation and the average wind speed in the processing of the wind measurement data by the prediction correlation measurement method in the prior art. MCP's wind speed prediction method uses the forecast correlation measurement method based on average wind speed correction to predict wind speed, taking into account power generation and average wind speed, high precision, simple calculation process, and high efficiency

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