Regional geological disaster weather forecasting and early warning method

Abstract

The invention discloses a regional geological disaster weather forecasting and early warning method, which is characterized in that on the basis of an existing easily-occurring partition of a regional geological disaster, on-day forecast rainfall and five-day forecast rainfall on the day of geological disaster forecasting are taken as input variables, a subdivision method of a digital elevation model (DEM) is adopted to carry out square grid subdivision on a research region, and the geological disaster easy risk degree of each subdivision grid unit is identified, so that regional geological disaster weather forecast and early warning are realized. The method is simple in parameter input, convenient in parameter acquisition and high in automation degree, and has a moderate manual intervention function, so that the rainfall threshold value can change along with the change of information such as actual occurrence frequency and position of subsequent geological disasters, and the precision and the working efficiency of geological disaster forecasting and early warning are continuously improved.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to meteorological forecasting and early warning method of geological disasters, more specifically relates to a method of meteorological forecasting and early warning of geological disasters in areas such as countries, provinces, cities or counties. Background technique [0002] The geological hazard system is a complex open system and dissipative system, and its system behavior is highly uncertain and sudden. According to the classified statistics of sudden landslides and debris flow disasters in China in recent years, about two-thirds of sudden landslides and debris flow disasters are directly induced by atmospheric rainfall or related to meteorological factors. Sudden geological disasters are mostly caused by heavy rainfall, and the greater the intensity of precipitation, the more severe the disaster, while gradual geological disasters are related to long-term, periodic, and variable climate effects. [0003] At present, extens...

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Problems solved by technology

However, the existing meteorological forecast and early warning methods for geological disasters have the following deficiencies: the existing methods rely heavily on statistical data of various geological disasters, overemphasize the number of occurrences of geological disasters in the past, and one-sidedly believe that the number of occurrences of geological disasters in history is more , the higher the susceptibility of geological disasters in this area, ignoring various potential geological disaster areas; the existing meteorological forecast and early warning methods for geological disasters still have the following shortcomings: some methods require too many parameters to be input, and many parameters are difficult Accurate measurement or quantitative estimation, and overemphasis on the full automation of the forecasting and early warning process, lack of appropriate manual intervention; some methods rely too much on manual judgment, resulting in too much human subjectivity in the forecast and early warning results, which further leads to inaccurate forecast and early warning results; in addition, At present, the rainfall threshold parameters of most existing meteorological forecast and early warning methods for geological disasters generally remain unchanged, and cannot change with the actual number and location of subsequent geological disasters, making it difficult to continuously improve the accuracy of forecast and early warning.

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