The invention discloses a regional geological hazard trend prediction method, comprising the following steps: inferring and analyzing the occurrence law of the geological hazard; setting a predictioncalculation unit, a prediction period and a prediction period; according to the occurrence of geological hazards in many years and the statistical regularity of geological environmental factors such as slope height, slope degree, rock and soil mass type, geological structure and so on, at the same time, the influence of different geological hazards being analyzed based on the historical data of geological hazards, and the value being assigned quantitatively; finally, after the end of the prediction period, the prediction results being checked according to the actual situation of geological hazards, the reasons of prediction deviation being analyzed, and the parameters being assigned by feedback and correction, so as to optimize the prediction model. On the basis of geological environment conditions, considering the main influencing factors such as climate, earthquake and human engineering activities, the occurrence trend of geological disasters, such as the number of geological disasters, the period of high occurrence, the key areas and the main types, can be accurately predicted quantitatively, so as to provide support for the deployment of geological disasters prevention.