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System and method of decision making

A decision-making and probabilities technique, applied in the field of decision-making systems and methods, that can solve problems such as results that are not well understood, overconfident, and expand phenomena

Inactive Publication Date: 2003-02-19
IGOTPAIN COM
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  • Summary
  • Abstract
  • Description
  • Claims
  • Application Information

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

When applied to complex systems such as medical diagnostics, the results obtained are not well understood and are often limited in accuracy
[0035] Therefore, a decision-making system needs to be developed that minimizes the flaws inherent in human decision-making, such as poor framing, recency effect, primacy effect, poor likelihood estimation, overconfidence, magnification, associative bias and "groupthink"

Method used

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Examples

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example 1

[0153] Use ELICIT TM Datasets and ELICIT TM A Novel Algorithm for Rule-Simulating Doctor's Decision-Making

[0154] This example describes an algorithm ("Algorithm 42") that uses ELICIT TM Datasets and ELICIT TM The rules process the user answers to make a decision that includes ranking a set of candidate possibilities (eg, ranking a set of candidate diagnoses). "Algorithm 42" and "Fuzzy" ELICIT TM Datasets and ELICIT TM Rules are used to rank alternative possibilities according to likelihood.

[0155] ELICIT TM Datasets and ELICIT TM Rules, as discussed above and below, are used in the algorithm of the present invention to model how a doctor infers a diagnosis from a patient's answers. Like anyone, the doctor weighs the patient's responses after they have them, and calculates and evaluates whether each response illustrates an acceptable "guess" for a conclusion involving the diagnosis, or if more inquiries should be made, whether other inquiries have to help further ...

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Abstract

The present invention relates to information systems theories and expert systems theories. The present invention provides a process, apparatus and method for decision making, based on emulation of the human decision-making process using expert-generated primary bias values, wherein a primary bias value associates a particular alternative possibility of a possibility set with a particular query, and reflects the expert s conception of the relative degree of predictive value of the query for the particular alternative relative to other alternatives in the possibility set. In particular embodiments, the present invention provides a process, apparatus and method for providing a medical diagnosis or medical self-assessment.

Description

[0001] Cross References to Related Applications [0002] This application claims priority to US Provisional Patent Application No. 60 / 175,106 (filed January 06, 2000). technical field [0003] The present invention relates to the theory of information system and the theory of expert system. The invention provides a decision-making process, device and method for simulating a human decision-making process. In particular embodiments, the present invention provides processes, devices and methods for providing medical diagnoses. Background technique [0004] Efficient and economical decision-making by humans, including ranking possibilities within a set of alternative possibilities, is considered by many to be an essential aspect of modern life. Unfortunately, human decision-making is sometimes flawed and lacks reasonable objectivity. Such deficits include poor conception, recency effect, primacy effect, poor likelihood estimation, overconfidence, magnification, associative bi...

Claims

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Application Information

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IPC IPC(8): G06F19/00G06N5/04G06Q50/00
CPCG06N5/04G06F19/363G06F19/345G16H10/20G16H50/20
Inventor 萨吉德·阿蒙德
Owner IGOTPAIN COM
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