A dynamic identification method and its device for normal fluctuation range of performance normal value

A technology of dynamic determination of fluctuation range, applied in real-time monitoring of telecom network performance and prediction of fluctuation range of telecom network performance indicators, to improve accuracy and reduce false positives and false negatives

Active Publication Date: 2008-09-17
BOCO INTER TELECOM +1
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Problems solved by technology

[0029] The purpose of the present invention is to provide a dynamic determination method and device for the normal fluctuation range of the performance index value, solve the current problem of the accuracy of the dynamic predict

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  • A dynamic identification method and its device for normal fluctuation range of performance normal value
  • A dynamic identification method and its device for normal fluctuation range of performance normal value
  • A dynamic identification method and its device for normal fluctuation range of performance normal value

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Embodiment Construction

[0077] The present invention proposes a method for dynamically determining the normal fluctuation range of the performance index, and uses the support vector machine method based on time series to perform the prediction process of the performance index early warning baseline and fluctuation range as follows: figure 1 shown, follow the steps below:

[0078] Step S101: Obtain historical values ​​of network performance indicators, and dynamically obtain the latest historical sample data;

[0079] Step S102: Preprocessing the latest historical sample data to obtain normal sample data;

[0080] Step S103: performing phase space reconstruction on the normal sample data to obtain training sample data;

[0081] Step S104: Perform training on the training sample data, and select an optimal support vector machine model based on the training sample data based on the residual white noise;

[0082] Step S105: Use the optimal support vector machine model to predict the data at the time po...

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Abstract

The invention discloses a dynamic confirming method for performance index value normal fluctuating range, comprising following steps: obtaining a historical value of the network performance index, and dynamically obtaining the latest historical sample data; processing pre-treatment to obtain a normal sample data; processing phase space re-construction to obtain a training sample data; processing training modeling to take residual error white noise as condition of selecting the optimal supporting vector machine model; using the optimal supporting vector machine model to predict the data on the to-be predicted time point, and calculating the confidence interval of the predicted value to obtain the performance index value normal fluctuating range; detecting whether the optimal supporting vector machine model is suitable for the next prediction of the to-be predicted time point; if the model is not suitable, processing re-training. The invention also discloses a device for the dynamic confirmation performance index value normal fluctuating range. The invention significantly enhances the precision of the performance dynamic early warning, and reduces wrong report and missing report of the performance warning.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the field of telecommunication network management, in particular to a method for real-time monitoring of telecommunication network performance, and in particular to the prediction of the fluctuation range of the telecommunication network performance index. Background technique [0002] With the increasingly fierce competition in the communication market, major telecom operators have successively proposed strategic transformation. Traditionally, the operation and maintenance management operated by the support department of the telecom operator has always belonged to the background part of the business process, directly oriented to the management of the network and equipment, and has no direct relationship with the market and customers. With the increasingly fierce market competition, improving customer satisfaction with network services has gradually become an important aspect for telecom operators to enhance market competitiven...

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Application Information

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IPC IPC(8): H04L12/26H04L12/24G06N3/06
Inventor 于艳华
Owner BOCO INTER TELECOM
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