Forest fire forecasting method based on data mining

A technology of forest fire and prediction methods, applied in the fields of electrical digital data processing, special data processing applications, instruments, etc.

Inactive Publication Date: 2012-09-12
KUNMING UNIV OF SCI & TECH
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  • Abstract
  • Description
  • Claims
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Problems solved by technology

These technologies can effectively solve problems such as prediction, but the prediction accuracy can be further improved

Method used

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  • Forest fire forecasting method based on data mining
  • Forest fire forecasting method based on data mining

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Embodiment 1

[0035] The present invention uses the real-time meteorological data of a certain year and month in Harbin as an example, and performs short-term prediction on the occurrence rate of fires in this year to illustrate the method in detail.

[0036] Based on the development environment under Windows, use SQL Sever 2005 database to establish corresponding historical and real-time databases, and establish models through Matlab or C#, C++ and other programming tools.

[0037] The main points of redesign and implementation are as follows:

[0038] 1. Determine the characteristic parameters of the system by examining the influencing factors;

[0039] 2. Determine the correlation between characteristic parameters through correlation analysis;

[0040]3. Through the correlation calculation of the characteristic parameters, select the corresponding parameters as the variables required in the model, then estimate the regression parameters through the least square method in the regression ...

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Abstract

The invention relates to a forest fire forecasting method based on data mining, belonging to the technical field of information automation; the forest fire forecasting method comprises the following steps: collecting real-time characteristic parameters capable of influencing the forest fire; then, processing associated coefficient analysis so as to process forecast by a regression model; processing probabilistic forecast by a Logistic regression model; and acquiring a forecasting result according to national established standards. According to the forest fire forecasting method provided by the invention, advanced data mining technology is applied to forest fire forecast by the forest fire forecasting method; the Logistic regression model is capable of forecasting the probability of fire and is combined with forest fire early-warning; the forest fire early-warning is cleared and graded more precisely; probability analysis is added to timely warning towards situations of relatively high fire danger levels; judging precision is improved; simultaneously, operation is processed conveniently and quickly.

Description

Technical field [0001] The invention involves a data -based forest fire prediction method based on data mining, which is the field of information automation technology. Background technique [0002] my country is one of the countries where there are many forest fires.Forest fires have severe damage to the ecological environment, and at the same time cause serious economic losses to human survival.In order to prevent the occurrence of forest fires, the frequency and factors of the fire need to be studied, and it can provide more reliable and accurate forest fire prediction systems as an important area of research and exploration.At present, in traditional forest fire prediction technology, Logistic and zero -expanded Poisson (ZIP) regression models and intelligent prediction are used.These technologies can effectively solve problems and other problems, but can be further improved in terms of prediction accuracy. Invention content [0003] In response to the above issues, the pre...

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Applications(China)
IPC IPC(8): G06F17/30
Inventor 刘云高利娟
Owner KUNMING UNIV OF SCI & TECH
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