Method for analyzing ice and climate relationship on basis of grey MLR (Multiple Linear Regression)

Abstract

The invention discloses a method for analyzing the ice and climate relationship on the basis of the grey MLR (Multiple Linear Regression), which comprises the following steps of: a step 1 of acquiring microclimate data comprising the environment humidity, the environment wind speed and the environment temperature and wire tensile force by a power transmission line online monitoring system and converting the microclimate data into an actual ice thickness value by a theories calculation model according to the wire tensile force; a step 2 of selecting effective data and applying a grey GM (1, 1) model construction to forecast the microclimate data; and a step 3 of establishing an ice thickness model by applying a MLR analysis method according to the selected effective data, forecasting the ice thickness on the basis of the microclimate GM (1,1) model construction and establishing an ice thickness forecasting model of the grey multiple regression analysis. The invention solves the problems that in the prior art, an equation system shows morbidness due to accumulation and subtraction of the data, the parameter estimation shows instability and the like. Detailed information such as the weight variation before and after a monitored power transmission line is iced, the inclination angle of an insulator string, the environment temperature and humidity, the wind speed and the like can be provided; and the ice thickness of the power transmission line is obtained by calculation according to field acquisition information.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the technical field of on-line monitoring of the state of power transmission and transformation equipment, and specifically relates to an on-line icing monitoring method based on multiple linear regression analysis of gray system theory. Background technique [0002] With the development of society, electric power has increasingly become an important part of the national economy. The rapid development of modern industry and agriculture has put forward higher requirements for the quality and quantity of power supply. Security has become an important indicator of grid reliability. In 2009, the State Grid Corporation of China proposed to build a smart grid with UHV as the backbone grid and coordinated development of power grids at all levels, and the six links of the strategic framework for smart grid development highlighted the importance of transmission lines. Because the transmission line is long, the terrain is complex, and t...

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Problems solved by technology

[0003] The technical problem to be solved by the present invention is to provide a multiple linear regression based ice thickness prediction method based on the gray system theory, and to solve the problem that the accuracy of the existing analysis method is not high enough due to the strong instability of the parameter estimation. Based on ash prediction, the influencing factors of icing prominence are obtained, and a more accurate prediction model of icing thickness is established

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