Probability forecasting method and system of switch equipment faults

Abstract

The invention provides a probability forecasting method and \system of switch equipment faults. The method comprises the following steps of: A) carrying out data processing on SF6 gas decomposition product detection data that the switch equipment has faults, and selecting a probability distribution which meets the requirements on relevance as a fault distribution; B) establishing an SF6 gas decomposition product probability model according to the selected fault distribution, and thereby predicting the probability that the switch equipment has faults. The system comprises a data processing module and a data modeling module, wherein the data processing module comprises a data counting module, a parameter estimating module and an error analyzing module; and the data modeling module comprises a fault distribution fitting module and a fault probability estimating module. By adoption of the method and the system, the SF6 gas decomposition product detection data in the equipment are processed, the fault probability of the equipment is predicted by using the established SF6 gas decomposition product probability model, and an effective basis is provided for the state judgment and evaluation, the fault diagnosis and the like for SF6 switch equipment.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to SF 6 The invention relates to the field of fault diagnosis of gas-insulated equipment, and specifically relates to a method and system for probabilistic prediction of switchgear failure. Background technique [0002] SF 6 Gas has excellent insulation and arc extinguishing properties, and is widely used as a gas insulation medium for electrical equipment such as GIS, circuit breakers, transformers, and transformers in 110kV and above power grids. SF 6 The chemical properties of the gas are relatively stable. Under normal operating conditions, the SF of the gas-insulated equipment 6 Gas decomposition products are less. Due to the long-term charged operation of the equipment or under the action of discharge, the SF 6 The gas is easily decomposed to produce SF 4 , SF 2 and S 2 f 2 And many other low fluoride sulfides. If SF 6 No impurities, as the temperature decreases, the decomposition gas can be quickly recombined and...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

[0004] Thanks to SF 6 The research on gas decomposition product detection technology for switchgear fault diagnosis is still in its infancy, and the SF detected in operating switchgear 6 There is not a single correspondence between gas decomposition products and equipment status or failure. How to use SF 6 There is a big gap in the research on the prediction of equipment failure probability based on the detection results of gas decomposition products, the relationship between it and the service life of equipment, and the application in equipment life cycle management.

[0005] Currently, for SF in switchgear 6 The on-site detection data of gas decomposition products are generally only simple data statistics, and no data processing is performed on the detection results, due to the lack of SF 6 The model or criterion of gas decomposition products and equipment failure uses personal experience to judge equipment status, and it is difficult to establish a relationship with equipment status or failure, which limits SF to a large extent. 6 Application and popularization of gas decomposition product detection technology

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