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An intelligent early warning method for spacecraft based on probability theory

A probability theory and spacecraft technology, applied in the field of intelligent early warning of spacecraft, can solve the problem of less application of spacecraft early warning, achieve the effect of intuitive knowledge representation, solid theoretical foundation, and solve the problem of threat level assessment

Inactive Publication Date: 2018-02-13
NORTHWESTERN POLYTECHNICAL UNIV
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  • Summary
  • Abstract
  • Description
  • Claims
  • Application Information

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

In addition, the method of judging threat probability based on time-varying multi-nodes is rarely used in spacecraft early warning

Method used

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  • An intelligent early warning method for spacecraft based on probability theory
  • An intelligent early warning method for spacecraft based on probability theory
  • An intelligent early warning method for spacecraft based on probability theory

Examples

Experimental program
Comparison scheme
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Embodiment 1

[0048] The specific process of using the data obtained by the detectors on the spacecraft to carry out spacecraft threat warning is described in sequence as follows:

[0049] Step 1, according to Bayesian formula Observing nodes from the presence or absence of antenna arrays at the four-layer nodes, the infrared detectors installed on the spacecraft detect according to the environmental information, and transmit the detection results to the spacecraft system for analysis;

[0050] Step 2, if the infrared imaging image does not have multiple peaks, it may not have a large-area antenna array, then according to Table 2, the probability that the target spacecraft has a warhead is 0.9, and the probability of no warhead is 0.1;

[0051] Step 3, if the observed target spacecraft carries obvious fuel parts and large nozzles, it means that the target spacecraft has a strong ability to change orbits, otherwise the ability to change orbits is weak. When the target orbit change capabili...

example 2

[0055] The specific process of spacecraft early warning when the detector fails at a certain moment is described in sequence as follows:

[0056] Step 1, according to Bayesian formula Observing nodes from the presence or absence of antenna arrays at the four-layer nodes, the infrared detectors installed on the spacecraft detect according to the environmental information, and transmit the detection results to the spacecraft system for analysis;

[0057] In the second step, the infrared detector installed on the spacecraft detects according to the environmental information, and transmits the detection results to the spacecraft system for analysis. 2. It can be seen that the probability that the target spacecraft has a warhead is 0.3, and the probability that there is no warhead is 0.7;

[0058] In the third step, the observed target spacecraft carries obvious fuel chambers and large nozzles, and it is speculated that the target spacecraft may have a strong ability to change or...

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Abstract

The invention provides an intelligent early warning method of a spacecraft on the basis of a probability theory. A detector inputs data into a plurality of endpoints of a network; when a lower-layer node has an input value, a probability of a possible value of each type of an ancestor node under each quantity of state is deduced when an observation node inputs observation data; and a Bayes formula and a prior probability are used to finally obtain the probability of each state of the ancestor node through the probability of a subordinate node state. An early warning network of the spacecraft is used as an effective tool which comprehensively utilizes a probability theory and a graph theory to carry out uncertainty analysis and reasoning, can quickly and conveniently process causality between different pieces of uncertain information, has the advantages of being simple in calculation, small in operation amount and favorable in astringency and instantaneity and can be used for solving the problem of the threat level evaluation on our platform by a space target spacecraft.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the field of spacecraft, in particular to the intelligent early warning of spacecraft. Background technique [0002] With the increasing number of artificial satellites and space debris in space, spacecraft in orbit are facing more and more serious threats. For large space debris with a diameter greater than 10 cm, the spacecraft must adopt evasive maneuvers to avoid fatal damage. Collision avoidance is actually an active defense measure for the spacecraft against space objects with a diameter greater than 10 cm. NASA and ESA have successfully used orbital maneuver avoidance technology many times to avoid dangerous on-orbit targets, effectively reducing the risk of collision. Therefore, assessing the possibility of a spacecraft colliding with other space objects or space debris has become a problem that must be considered during spacecraft flight. [0003] At present, there are two main development directions of spacecraft ea...

Claims

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Patents(China)
IPC IPC(8): G06F19/00
Inventor 岳晓奎陈园园宁昕袁建平
Owner NORTHWESTERN POLYTECHNICAL UNIV