Analog simulation method for cost risk of transmission and transformation projects
A technology of engineering cost and simulation, applied in the direction of electrical digital data processing, instruments, calculations, etc., can solve the problems of low efficiency, "three super" phenomenon, large investment, etc., achieve control of construction costs, wide application range, and avoid deviation oversized effect
Active Publication Date: 2016-05-25
JIANGSU ELECTRIC POWER CO +3
View PDF2 Cites 0 Cited by
- Summary
- Abstract
- Description
- Claims
- Application Information
AI Technical Summary
Problems solved by technology
However, with the rapid development of power grid construction, some problems in the current construction of power transmission and transformation projects have also been highlighted during the construction process, such as large investment, low efficiency, loopholes in cost management, etc.
[0003] Among them, cost management is faced with a complex and changeable environment and various uncertain factors. These uncertain factors often cause the investment target of power transmission and transformation projects to get out of control, the phenomenon of "three supers" occurs, and reduce the construction effect of power transmission and transformation projects. And restrict the efficiency improvement of power grid enterprises
Method used
the structure of the environmentally friendly knitted fabric provided by the present invention; figure 2 Flow chart of the yarn wrapping machine for environmentally friendly knitted fabrics and storage devices; image 3 Is the parameter map of the yarn covering machine
View moreImage
Smart Image Click on the blue labels to locate them in the text.
Smart ImageViewing Examples
Examples
Experimental program
Comparison scheme
Effect test
Embodiment Construction
[0035] Below in conjunction with accompanying drawing of description, the present invention will be further described.
[0036] The present invention provides a cost risk simulation method for power transmission and transformation projects, comprising the following steps:
[0037] 1) Collect the cost composition and cost data of the target project in the power transmission and transformation project that has occurred, and build a Monte Carlo cost simulation model; the target project of this embodiment is an overhead transmission line installation project, such as a power company that will carry out 220kV For the construction of a section of transmission line, through the analysis of years of data, the company has obtained the labor-days and material consumption data of similar overhead transmission line installation projects over the years, and combined with the current market resource situation, the labor unit price and labor cost of the current cost risk simulation project ha...
the structure of the environmentally friendly knitted fabric provided by the present invention; figure 2 Flow chart of the yarn wrapping machine for environmentally friendly knitted fabrics and storage devices; image 3 Is the parameter map of the yarn covering machine
Login to View More PUM
Login to View More Abstract
The invention discloses an analog simulation method for the cost risk of transmission and transformation projects. The method comprises the following steps: collecting composition of the generated cost of a target project in the transmission and transformation projects and cost data of the target project and building a Monte Carlo cost simulation model; carrying out analog simulation on random variables by utilizing a Monte Carlo simulation algorithm in matrix laboratory (MATLAB) software and working out the expected value, the variance and the risk degree of an analog cost; carrying out sensitivity analysis on main risk factors, finding the cost risk control key points, offering monitoring and giving a cost risk early warning; and carrying out risk judgment according to the risk degree of the analog cost and taking an expected value of the analog cost as a reference of the estimated cost value if the risk degree is low. The method disclosed by the invention has the advantages that the method is simple and feasible and wide in application range; the cost risk of the transmission and transformation projects can be accurately and reliably predicted; the cost risk control key points can be found; an early warning performance is provided; a positive role in guiding the cost risk pre-control of the transmission and transformation projects is played; and the construction cost can be effectively controlled.
Description
technical field [0001] The invention relates to a cost control method, in particular to a cost risk simulation method for a power transmission and transformation project, which belongs to the field of power systems. Background technique [0002] In recent years, my country's rapid economic development has led to a rapid increase in electricity demand. Only by vigorously developing power transmission and transformation projects can the tight power supply situation be alleviated. However, with the rapid development of power grid construction, some problems in the current construction of power transmission and transformation projects have also been highlighted during its construction, such as large investment, low efficiency, and loopholes in cost management. [0003] Among them, cost management is faced with a complex and changeable environment and various uncertain factors. These uncertain factors often cause the investment target of power transmission and transformation proj...
Claims
the structure of the environmentally friendly knitted fabric provided by the present invention; figure 2 Flow chart of the yarn wrapping machine for environmentally friendly knitted fabrics and storage devices; image 3 Is the parameter map of the yarn covering machine
Login to View More Application Information
Patent Timeline
Login to View More IPC IPC(8): G06F17/50
CPCY02E60/00
Inventor 杨晓梅方向孙海森王朋刘婷张旺凌俊斌纪伟
Owner JIANGSU ELECTRIC POWER CO