Automatic correctional multi-mode value rainfall ensemble forecast method

An ensemble forecast and multi-model technology, applied in the direction of rainfall/precipitation gauge, forecast, weather condition forecast, etc., can solve problems such as poor forecast effect, increased model forecast uncertainty, wrong judgment or selection, etc.

Active Publication Date: 2016-07-27
CHINA INST OF WATER RESOURCES & HYDROPOWER RES
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Problems solved by technology

However, if a certain numerical atmospheric model is not effective in forecasting one or several rainfalls, it is artificially decided not to use the model, which may increase the uncertainty of the model forecast
Human decision-making is an important method to determine the results of ensemble rainfall forecasting, but it is highly dependent on experience, and it is inevitable to make wrong judgments or choices

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  • Automatic correctional multi-mode value rainfall ensemble forecast method
  • Automatic correctional multi-mode value rainfall ensemble forecast method
  • Automatic correctional multi-mode value rainfall ensemble forecast method

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Embodiment Construction

[0056] Combine below figure 1 , the present invention is further described:

[0057] The technical scheme adopted in the present invention is an automatic correction numerical ensemble rainfall forecasting method based on the scoring method. The method is mainly divided into two main parts: one is the operation of each numerical atmospheric model, and the other is the evaluation and forecast of each numerical atmospheric model operation result The integration of the results can achieve a more objective ensemble rainfall forecast and reduce the uncertainty of the model forecast. Follow the steps below to implement:

[0058] (1) Selection of numerical weather prediction models: Select several mainstream atmospheric models currently used for numerical weather prediction and install them on the same weather prediction platform.

[0059] (2) Simulation forecast: On the weather forecast platform, set and process the initial times, boundary conditions, physical parameterization sch...

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Abstract

The invention relates to an automatic correctional multi-mode value rainfall ensemble forecast method. The method comprises following steps of step 1, selecting various value atmosphere forecast modes; step 2, simulating forecast; outputting rainfall data every other T hours; step 3, evaluating rainfall forecast results; step 4, determining forecast weight coefficients of various modes; and step 5, releasing the forecast results of this time. According to the method, on the basis of existing multi-mode ensemble rainfall forecast, the rainfall forecast results of various value atmosphere modes can be evaluated more objectively; the final ensemble rainfall forecast results are unnecessarily and excessively dependent on manual decisions; and the released rainfall forecast results are more objective.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to an automatically corrected multi-mode numerical rainfall ensemble forecast method, which is mainly used for multi-mode ensemble rainfall forecast work carried out by departments of meteorology, water conservancy and the like. Background technique [0002] For a long time, rainfall forecast, as an important part of numerical weather prediction, has been widely concerned by relevant scholars. Since the formation process and occurrence of rainfall are affected by many aspects such as large-scale atmospheric circulation, ocean currents, sea and land positions, terrain, underlying surface, and human activities, there are many uncertainties in the temporal and spatial distribution of rainfall, and its forecast is more difficult than other meteorological The elements are large. The general rainfall forecast time step is 6h. The shorter the time step, the more difficult the forecast and the lower the forecast accuracy. If the time ste...

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Applications(China)
IPC IPC(8): G06F19/00
CPCG01W1/10G01W1/14G06Q10/04G06Q50/02G16Z99/00
Inventor 刘佳李传哲田济扬于福亮王洋
Owner CHINA INST OF WATER RESOURCES & HYDROPOWER RES
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