Photovoltaic power station power generation amount predication method based on adaptive mutation particle swarm and BP network

Abstract

The invention discloses a photovoltaic power station power generation amount predication method based on an adaptive mutation particle swarm and a BP network. The method comprises the steps of acquiring and preprocessing a data sample, then constructing a BP neural network structure, optimizing the network by means of an adaptive mutation particle swarm algorithm, and introducing an optimal individual which is obtained after optimization into the BP neural network for predication. According to the method of the invention, the adaptive mutation particle swarm algorithm and the BP neural network are combined for performing real-time power generation amount predication on the photovoltaic power generation system; namely power generation state at next time period is predicated through power generation amount information of a former time period. According to the method of the invention, a relatively high global convergence capability of the adaptive mutation particle swarm algorithm is used for optimizing the initial weight and threshold of the network, thereby improving convergence speed and precision in power generation amount predication.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to a method for predicting power generation of a photovoltaic power station based on an adaptive variation particle swarm and a BP network, and belongs to the technical field of grid-connected photovoltaic power generation. Background technique [0002] Solar photovoltaic power generation is a form of power generation that uses the photovoltaic effect of solar cells to directly convert the sun's radiant energy into electrical energy. Solar energy is an inexhaustible clean energy. With the continuous development of photovoltaic power generation technology, photovoltaic The power generation system accounts for an increasing proportion of the entire power grid. Since the operation of the photovoltaic power generation system is greatly affected by external factors, such as radiation, temperature, wind speed, etc., it will cause large fluctuations or intermittent nature of the power generation system. This kind of randomness will have ...

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Problems solved by technology

[0002] Solar photovoltaic power generation is a form of power generation that uses the photovoltaic effect of solar cells to directly convert the sun's radiant energy into electrical energy. Solar energy is an inexhaustible clean energy. With the continuous development of photovoltaic power generation technology, photovoltaic The power generation system accounts for an increasing proportion of the entire power grid. Since the operation of the photovoltaic power generation system is greatly affected by external factors, such as radiation, temperature, wind speed, etc., it will cause large fluctuations or intermittent nature of the power generation system. This kind of randomness will have a certain impact on the operation of the power system and power dispatching, and the system security and stability of the power grid ...

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