Universal method capable of precisely predicting structure change of dairy herds in dairy farm

Abstract

The invention discloses a universal method capable of precisely predicting the structure change of dairy herds in a dairy farm. The universal method capable of precisely predicting the structure change of the dairy herds in the dairy farm is prepared through the following three steps of 1, user-defined setting of replacement dairy cow month-age-referred parameters; 2, user-defined setting of the use scheme of frozen sperms; and 3, prediction of a prediction result to parity. By adding the dairy herd prediction methods of performing user-defined setting of replacement dairy cow month-age-referred parameters, user-defined setting of the use scheme of the frozen sperms, adult cow division according to the parity and the like on the basis of the existing dairy herd prediction method in industry, firstly, the accuracy of the dairy herd prediction can be greatly improved (the error rate is less than or equal to 5 percent); secondly, the universality of the same prediction method in the whole industry can be ensured; and finally, through the adult cow division according to the parity, the precision of each budget of the pasture and the milk quantity prediction in a next step can be improved.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the field of forecasting changes in the structure of cattle herds, in particular to a general method for accurately predicting changes in the structure of cattle herds in dairy farms. Background technique [0002] At present, various types of cattle farms (large, medium and small) in my country basically use different methods at the end of each year to predict the number of cattle on hand at the end of each month in the next year. Dairy farms use this data to budget for the various items needed in the coming year. Dairy companies use this data to predict the milk production in the coming year, so as to formulate the production and structure of dairy products in the coming year; small-scale ranches usually make forecasts based on the stock situation in each month of the previous year and past experience. Some large and medium-sized pastures will use word tables to calculate, and some will use Excel to calculate related formulas. T...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

[0005] 1. The estimation method of small-scale pastures, due to the lack of actual calculation of cattle breeding data and various indicators such as mortalities, survival rates, etc., the error rate of the estimation results is relatively large, which has little significance for the actual production of pastures. Time is just a passive move to deal with dairy processing enterprises;

[0006] 2. The method of overturning the word form of medium and large pastures, although the dead rate, female calf rate and survival rate of the cows are considered in the calculation, but the actual insemination and calving time of the cows are not calculated according to the actual insemination and calving time in the calculation process , but push down according to a fixed pattern (for example, the cow is 1 year old this year and will be 2 years old next year, and the cow will have 1 litter this year and 2 litters next year), although this method is more than the estimation of small ranches. Some breeding indicators have been considered, but there will still be a large error between the predicted results and the actual situation. If the error is too large, the significance to pastures and dairy companies will also be reduced, and the practicability is not very good;

[0007] 3. Another mode is to use Excel in combination with relevant formula calculation methods. This mode is also the closest to the present invention. This mode is mainly used in some large-scale cattle farms. These cattle farms are equipped with complete technical forces. Relatively The level of professional technology is relatively high. Although Excel tools are used, the calculation methods and the consideration of various factors are also different. However, the basic principle is to calculate the insemination and reproductive status of cattle. When the breeding indicators are well considered, the error rate can also be very small, but there is a problem that existing cattle farms or groups that use Excel to predict the number of cattle on hand in the industry, they all use their own cattle farms or groups It is designed according to the specific breeding mode and management standards. The relevant parameters cannot be set individually, and are only suitable for their own cattle farms. Different cattle farms have their own characteristics, and the versatility is poor. A pasture starts mating at the age of 14 months. If the latter uses the former model to predict, there will be a large error in the prediction results), and there are also differences in the consideration of various details that affect the prediction results (if any The first 2 times of insemination of back-up cows on pastures are sex-controlled frozen semen, and some pastures may be the first 3 times, and some pastures may be the first 4 times. Forecasting on cattle farms with controlled freezing, the number of predicted cattle will increase exponentially, and the actual results will have a very large error), therefore, we need a standard and accurate method that is applicable to all types of cattle farms in the industry. The herd forecasting method provides convenience for different types of cattle farms in the industry, provides data support for cost budgeting, provides a data basis for the prediction of milk production in dairy companies, and contributes to the development of the entire industry

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