Bus travel time model construction method based on survival analysis parameter distribution

Abstract

The present invention discloses a bus travel time model construction method based on survival analysis parameter distribution. The method comprises: acquiring travel time of each bus in three sections: upstream, a bus stop and downstream of an area adjacent to the bus stop and corresponding influence variable data; comparing the travel time to a duration in survival analysis; supposing that the duration approximately obeys parameter distribution, taking each independent variable into a model for solution; and selecting a probability density function of an optimal model to perform integration to obtain an expected function as a bus travel time evaluation model and verifying accuracy of the model. The method provided by the present invention is easy and feasible, and is capable of calculating travel time of a bus and comparing and evaluating actual bus travel time, so as to provide theoretical basis for operation managers to implement control measures for influence variables to offer bus competitiveness; and the method has actual project application value for evaluating travel time of the bus in the adjacent area of the bus stop.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the technical field of traffic intelligent management and control, and in particular relates to a method for constructing a bus travel time evaluation model in the adjacent area of ​​a bus stop based on the distribution of survival analysis parameters. Background technique [0002] With the rapid development of economy and the acceleration of urbanization, the increase of people's travel frequency and the expansion of life and employment radius have put forward higher requirements for the service level of public transport and the coverage of bus stops. Therefore, the construction of bus stop facilities has accelerated in recent years. An important guarantee and support for the operating system. However, the low efficiency of bus operation in the area adjacent to the bus station has become one of the main problems restricting the development of urban public transport. These factors have seriously affected the driving time of th...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

However, the low efficiency of bus operation in the area adjacent to the bus station has become one of the main problems restricting the development of urban public transport. These factors have seriously affected the driving time of the bus in the adjacent area of ​​the bus station and the corresponding stop service location and time, thereby increasing the delay time and driving risk of the bus, and also affecting the normal operation of urban public transportation and the convenience of citizens. Travel has an impact and has become a major bottleneck restricting the development of public transportation

[0003] Existing research cannot discriminate the influencing factors of bus operation in the area adjacent to the bus platform, nor can it quantitatively calculate the theoretical travel time of the bus under the interference of the influencing factors. correct evaluation of operations

At present, the relevant departments of traffic management are only qualitatively making corresponding measures, such as increasing the video monitoring factors affecting the travel time and carrying out corresponding management, but the relevant departments have not made full use of actual data to identify the travel time of buses in real time, let alone The quantitative and qualitative systematic research on the post-operation evaluation of buses has not been well answered from related research

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