Conditional probability adjustment-based electric energy metering device short-term demand prediction method

Abstract

The invention discloses a short-term demand forecasting method for an electric energy metering device of a business expansion project based on conditional probability adjustment, and belongs to the technical field of metering device demand forecasting. The method of the present invention takes the demand prediction of the electric energy metering device of the business expansion project as the object, first combines the historical data of the past years in the marketing business system, uses the time series decomposition model to predict the overall demand, and comprehensively considers the business expansion on the way from "measurement demand determination" to " According to the conditional probability distribution theory, the conditional probability adjustment model of the in-transit project is established, and the obtained preliminary forecast results are dynamically adjusted in real time, so as to obtain more accurate demand forecast results. The short-term demand forecasting method for electric energy metering devices in industrial expansion projects based on conditional probability adjustment can adjust, optimize and improve the original demand forecast results in a timely manner according to the changes in demand data of recent engineering projects, and provide more accurate information for procurement, inspection, production, and warehousing and distribution. demand plan.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the technical field of metering production, in particular to a short-term demand forecasting method for electric energy metering devices based on conditional probability adjustment. Background technique [0002] As a typical achievement and demonstration of the construction of the "big marketing" measurement system of State Grid Corporation, the provincial measurement center is responsible for the arrival, verification and distribution of millions of measurement equipment in the province every year. The production plan is heavy and intertwined. The traditional The measurement production plan is mainly arranged by manual experience, which has the disadvantages of high inventory, low turnover rate, poor timeliness, difficult interaction, and poor flexibility. The optimization method of metering production plan based on factors such as demand priority and other factors, scientifically and rationally formulate the arrival, verifica...

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Problems solved by technology

[0002] As a typical achievement and demonstration of the construction of the "big marketing" measurement system of State Grid Corporation, the provincial measurement center is responsible for the arrival, verification and distribution of millions of measurement equipment in the province every year. The production plan is heavy and intertwined. The traditional The measurement production plan is mainly arranged by manual experience, which has the disadvantages of high inventory, low turnover rate, poor timeliness, difficult interaction, and poor flexibility. The optimization method of metering production plan based on factors such as demand priority and other factors, scientifically and rationally formulate the arrival, verification and distribution plan of metering devices, which can greatly reduce central inventory and production costs, and improve the response efficiency and service ability of power supply enterprises to meter demand. of great significance

[0003] After searching, no technical solution identical to this patent application was found in the existing published patent documents

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