Electrical quantity ultra-short prediction method and system based on data mining

A technology of ultra-short-term forecasting and data mining, applied in forecasting, data processing applications, instruments, etc., can solve the problems of simple electrical quantity forecasting technology models, achieve reliable forecasting results, reduce forecasting errors, and achieve high-precision forecasting results

Inactive Publication Date: 2017-08-18
SHANDONG UNIV +3
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Problems solved by technology

[0005] In order to solve the problem that the existing electrical quantity forecasting technology model is too simple in the background of wide-area spatiotemporal big data, and lacks the deep mining and effective utilization of the wide-area measurement information of the power grid, the present invention provides an ultra-short-term electric quantity forecasting based on data mining. method of prediction

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  • Electrical quantity ultra-short prediction method and system based on data mining
  • Electrical quantity ultra-short prediction method and system based on data mining
  • Electrical quantity ultra-short prediction method and system based on data mining

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[0057] It should be pointed out that the following detailed description is exemplary and intended to provide further explanation to the present application. Unless defined otherwise, all technical and scientific terms used herein have the same meaning as commonly understood by one of ordinary skill in the art to which this application belongs.

[0058] It should be noted that the terminology used here is only for describing specific implementations, and is not intended to limit the exemplary implementations according to the present application. As used herein, unless the context clearly dictates otherwise, the singular is intended to include the plural, and it should also be understood that when the terms "comprising" and / or "comprising" are used in this specification, they mean There are features, steps, operations, means, components and / or combinations thereof.

[0059] In the embodiment of the present invention, an ultra-short-term forecast is made for the active load of t...

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Abstract

The invention discloses an electrical quantity ultra-short prediction method and system based on data mining, wherein the method comprises the steps: standard normalized processing is performed on a to-be-measured time series, and calculations of non-linear polymerization degree and an optimal embedded dimension E are performed on standard normalized data, so that the non-linear degree of a given dynamic system is inspected; according to the optimal embedded dimension E, delay time [tau] of the to-be-measured time series is calculated; according to the optimal embedded dimension E and the delay time [tau], phase-space reconstruction is performed on the to-be-measured time series; a experience dynamic model is constructed, a simplex projection method is adopted in the reconstructed phase space to predict the given dynamic system, and a prediction result of the to-be-measured time series is obtained.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the field of large power grid data mining, and in particular relates to a data mining-based ultra-short-term prediction method and system for electric quantity. Background technique [0002] As a special nonlinear energy transmission system, the power grid has different electrical quantities (voltage amplitude, phase angle, load, and active power) that exhibit different numerical change characteristics in different operating scenarios. In the power grid, due to the objective existence of topological connections between components, there must be more or less interaction forces between them. From the point of view that the operating status of all components in the power grid is completely measurable, the topological relationship and interaction force between components It must be contained in the wide-area space-time measurement information. In order to implement dynamic regulation of the power grid, it is necessary to be able t...

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Applications(China)
IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/04G06Q50/06
Inventor 杨明马嘉翼韩学山马世英刘道伟苗福丰毛玉宾刘永民
Owner SHANDONG UNIV
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