Method for predicting deformation of rock slope of reservoir bank in storage period

Abstract

The invention discloses a method for predicting deformation of a rock slope of a reservoir bank in a storage period. The method includes the following steps: establishing a reservoir bank slope deformation regression analysis predicting model comprising various deformation components, and carrying out regression analysis on slope deformation monitoring data; carrying out back calculation and analysis on rock-mass mechanical parameters and thermal parameters of the reservoir bank by using a numerical simulation and analysis method on the basis of the predicting model; calculating and analyzing deformation of the slope of the bank under the current water level by using the numerical simulation and analysis method on the basis of the rock-mass mechanical parameters and the thermal parameters, which are obtained by back calculation, of the slope of the reservoir bank, evaluating according to the deformation monitoring data, and adjusting parameters according to an evaluating result to obtain the adjusted rock-mass mechanical parameters and the thermal parameters; predicting deformation of the rock slope under a next storage level according to the adjusted rock-mass mechanical parameters and the thermal parameters to obtain a deformation prediction result of the rock slope of the reservoir bank under the next storage level; and inspecting a deformation predicting result. On the basis of the mixed predicting model, the predicting result is accurate and comprehensive.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to a method for predicting deformation of reservoir bank rock slope during water storage period, and belongs to the technical field of water conservancy and hydropower engineering. Background technique [0002] At present, in hydropower projects, many rocky slopes on reservoir banks start to deform after water storage. Although the slopes have not suffered from landslide instability and damage, they have been in a state of creep deformation for a long time, and the slopes have undergone large time-dependent deformations. risk of landslide hazards. For example, Jinping 1 and Xiluodu in China all show the law of narrowing of valley width after impoundment, and continue to deform after the water level stabilizes. The Guobu slope on the right bank of the upper reaches of the Laxiwa Hydropower Station in my country continued to deform after water storage. Up to now, the cumulative maximum deformation has reached about 40 meters, and t...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

The existing slope deformation prediction methods mainly include: numerical calculation, traditional time series analysis method, gray system, neural network method, support vector machine and genetic algorithm, etc. These methods generally have deficiencies, including, first, they cannot The instantaneous deformation induced by water pressure, seepage, temperature changes, etc., and the time-dependent deformation caused by factors such as seepage and rock mass creep are separated, and the deformation monitoring quantity is not clearly decomposed into a combination of several main influencing factors. Therefore, it is difficult to make a reasonable physical and mechanical explanation for the induced causes and evolution laws of the reservoir bank slope deformation; secondly, based on the measured value data and various linear relationships, the "point" deformation of each monitoring point is quantitatively studied, It can reflect the local deformation characteristics of the slope. Due to the limited number of monitoring points, the deformation of other parts is difficult to grasp, and it cannot fully reflect the working characteristics, structural integrity and the relationship between the various parts of the slope.

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