Prediction method for resource abundance of Japanese anchovies in northwest Pacific Ocean

Abstract

The invention discloses a prediction method for resource abundance of Japanese anchovies in the northwest Pacific Ocean. According to the method, the study sea region (from 32-degree N to 41-degree N and from 130-degree E to 145-degree E) is divided into 88 sea areas according to the spatial resolution of (1-degree x 1-degree), and an SST station is arranged in each sear area; SST data of each SST station is acquired through a remote sensing satellite; correlation analysis is performed on the SST data of each SST station in each month from April to September from 1988 to 2013 and CPUE data of Japanese anchovies in the next year, and the months when the SST stations are remarkably correlated with CPUE of Japanese anchovies in the next year are obtained; three linear regression models are established according to the correlation analysis result to predict the resource abundance of Japanese anchovies; and the three models are verified, the relative error of the second model is minimum according to a relative error, being the verification standard, between predicted resource abundance and actual resource abundance, and therefore the second model is selected to serve as the prediction method for the resource abundance of Japanese anchovies in the northwest Pacific Ocean.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to a method for forecasting fishery conditions, in particular to a method for forecasting the abundance of Japanese anchovy resources in the Northwest Pacific Ocean. Background technique [0002] Japanese anchovy (Engraulis japonicus) is a warm-water pelagic fish widely distributed in the three oceans, especially in the northwestern Pacific Ocean. Japanese anchovy mainly feeds on plankton, and at the same time it is the main food of other high-trophic predators. It plays a key role in linking the past and the future in the marine ecosystem, and is called a keystone species. However, Japanese anchovies are extremely sensitive to environmental changes, and their resource abundance and distribution are affected by many factors, such as fishing pressure, climate, geographical location, marine physical environment, and biological factors. Climate change affects the changes of marine environmental elements through the interaction of se...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

The above studies focus on the distribution of fishing grounds of Japanese anchovy and the relationship between them and the environment, but there are no reports on the prediction model of the abundance of Japanese anchovy resources

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