Petroleum and petrochemical high risk equipment fault risk quantification evaluation method

A technology of equipment failure and evaluation method, applied in the field of risk assessment, can solve problems such as no quantitative evaluation, achieve the effect of enhancing stability and reducing risk probability

Inactive Publication Date: 2018-01-05
SOUTHWEST PETROLEUM UNIV
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  • Summary
  • Abstract
  • Description
  • Claims
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AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

The above-mentioned problems involving both quantitative and qualitative data can be collectively referred to as mixed risk analysis problems. However, there is no specific method for quantitative evaluation of high-risk equipment failure risks in petroleum and petrochemical industries in the existing related technologies.

Method used

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  • Petroleum and petrochemical high risk equipment fault risk quantification evaluation method
  • Petroleum and petrochemical high risk equipment fault risk quantification evaluation method
  • Petroleum and petrochemical high risk equipment fault risk quantification evaluation method

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Embodiment Construction

[0060] In order to have a clearer understanding of the technical features, purposes and effects of the present invention, the specific implementation manners of the present invention will now be described with reference to the accompanying drawings.

[0061] Such as figure 1 As shown, the present invention discloses a method for quantitatively evaluating the failure risk of high-risk petroleum and petrochemical equipment. The method includes the following steps:

[0062] S1: Analyze the risk factors of failure modes in petroleum and petrochemical high-risk equipment, and obtain the hierarchical structure of the main failure modes;

[0063] S2: Establish a fuzzy fault tree analysis model and a fuzzy event tree analysis model for high-risk equipment;

[0064] S3: According to the fuzzy fault tree analysis model and the fuzzy event tree analysis model, establish a fuzzy bow-tie model;

[0065] S4: Determine the occurrence probability of each event in the fuzzy fault tree analys...

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Abstract

The present invention provides a quantitative evaluation method for failure risk of high-risk petroleum and petrochemical equipment, including the following steps: S1: analyzing the risk factors of failure modes in high-risk petroleum and petrochemical equipment to obtain the hierarchical structure of main failure modes; S2: establishing high-risk equipment The fuzzy fault tree analysis model and the fuzzy event tree analysis model of the system; S3: According to the fuzzy fault tree analysis model and the fuzzy event tree analysis model, establish the fuzzy Bow‑tie Model; S4: determine the fault in the fuzzy fault tree and fuzzy event tree analysis model Occurrence probability of each event in ; S5: Fuzzy risk and sensitivity analysis based on fuzzy Bow‑tie Model. Through the present invention, the quantitative evaluation of risk in the case of missing or uncertain data in risk analysis is realized, and the risk coefficient and risk ranking of key events are calculated, which can guide us to take appropriate equipment maintenance and risk control measures, thereby contributing to Enhance the reliability of high-risk equipment and reduce the probability of major risk accidents.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the field of risk assessment, in particular to a method for quantitatively assessing the failure risk of high-risk petroleum and petrochemical equipment. Background technique [0002] With the rapid development of the petroleum and petrochemical industry and the increasingly fierce international competition, it has become the purpose of relevant enterprises to achieve zero accident safety production. The risk assessment and risk control of high-risk equipment failures is one of the main technical means to reduce major risk accidents such as casualties, environmental pollution, and economic losses in petroleum and petrochemical operations and production. However, in the process of quantitative risk assessment of high-risk equipment, due to the loss, uncertainty or unknownness of the relevant data of the cause event and the result event, the data of some events can be quantitatively calculated through actual measurement and histo...

Claims

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Applications(China)
IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/06G06Q50/02
Inventor 唐洋杨雁敬佳佳张志东刘清友王国荣邹正伟
Owner SOUTHWEST PETROLEUM UNIV
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