Urban intersection safety evaluation method based on extreme value theory and microscopic simulation

Abstract

The invention provides an urban intersection safety evaluation method based on an extreme value theory and microscopic simulation. According to the method, operating conditions of intersections in a peak period are collected through videos, recognition and data extraction are performed on an intersection conflict, simulation software VISSIM is adopted to perform traffic network simulation modelingand calibration, a conflict track file is extracted, and conflict data is screened; an extreme value model is adopted to perform modeling on the traffic conflict data, and accident risk rates of theintersections are calculated; specifically, a TCT method and an extreme value theory method (Strategy 3) are used to calculate risk degrees respectively, and a Pearson coefficient and a Spearman Rankcoefficient are compared; according to the Pearson coefficient, association calculation is directly performed on the number of actual accidents and safety risk indicators; and according to the Spearman Rank coefficient, safety ordering is performed on the intersections according to the risk indicators and the number of the actual accidents respectively, and the safety evaluation method most approximate to the safety reflected by the actual accidents is selected.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to an urban intersection safety evaluation method, in particular to an urban intersection safety evaluation method based on extreme value theory and microscopic simulation. Background technique [0002] Urban road intersections are the meeting points of the urban road network, where pedestrians and vehicles meet, turn, and diverge, and are the key to the flexibility of the road network. But because intersections usually have multi-directional traffic flow concentration, in the whole road network, level intersections are bottlenecks of road capacity and frequent occurrences of traffic accidents. According to statistics, traffic accidents at level intersections account for a large proportion. The sampling of traffic accidents in domestic cities in my country shows that the number of traffic accidents at level intersections accounts for about 30%, and the traffic accidents in cities in the Federal Republic of Germany occur at level i...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

The probability mathematical statistics method includes the accident absolute number method, the accident rate method, etc. This method is simple and easy in statistics, but the disadvantage is that the analysis of accidents is too simple and does not take into account the differences of different road traffic conditions, which makes the evaluation results often lack scientific and convincing

Although this method is simple and easy to implement, the traffic safety situation on each road section is the result of the comprehensive effect of many factors, and the comprehensive effect between various factors is not considered in the analysis, so this method lacks theoretical rigor

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