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A method for predicting the actual production cycle of parts
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A technology of production cycle and forecasting method, applied in forecasting, data processing applications, instruments, etc., can solve problems such as unpredictable processing cycle, and achieve the effect of increasing accuracy
Active Publication Date: 2022-05-10
CHENGDU AIRCRAFT INDUSTRY GROUP
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[0003] The purpose of the present invention is to provide a method for predicting the actual production cycle of parts, which is used to solve the problem in the prior art that it is impossible to accurately predict the processing cycle according to the type of machine tool actually used in part processing and the processes involved.
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Embodiment 1
[0047] combined with figure 1 As shown, a method for predicting the actual production cycle of parts, including:
[0048] Step S100: Obtain the historical processing data of part A from the MES system, the processing historical data includes the processing cycle Q, machine tool and process of part A;
[0049] Step S200: Calculate the machine tool processing coefficient K, which is the ratio of the average processing cycle of this type of machine tool to the average processing cycle of all types of machine tools in the same process;
[0050] Step S300: Select two historical processing data of Part A in different time ranges as samples, calculate the average processing cycle of the two samples, and calculate the time correction coefficient T;
[0051] Step S400: Multiply the processing cycle Q of the part A by the machining coefficient of the machine tool and then multiply it by the time correction coefficient T to obtain the predicted processing cycle Z of the part A.
[0052...
Embodiment 2
[0055] On the basis of Embodiment 1, the step S100 specifically includes:
[0056] Step S110: List a matrix table according to the processing cycle Q, machine tools and procedures;
[0057] Step S120: Select statistical samples and count the average processing cycles of different machine tools in different processes .
[0058] working principle:
[0059] From the MES system, use keywords to filter the historical processing data of A part. The keywords include machine tools and procedures. The filtered data forms a new matrix table. The rows of the matrix table represent the type of machine tools, and the columns of the matrix represent processes. The row and column values are a certain The processing cycle Q in the process corresponding to the machine tool. In the form of a matrix table, it is more convenient to count and analyze the processing cycle Q and average processing cycle of A part in a certain process of a certain machine tool
Embodiment 3
[0061] On the basis of embodiment 2, the rows of the matrix table in the step S110 include process 1, process 2, ..., process j, ..., process m; the columns of the matrix table include machine tool 1, machine tool 2, ..., machine tool i, ..., machine tool n; the row and column values of the matrix table are the processing cycle Q of machine tool i in process j ji .
[0062] working principle:
[0063] Processing cycle Q ji Indicates the time when machine tool i processes part A in process j. If machine tool i does not process part A in process j, then Q ji =0.
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Abstract
The invention discloses a method for predicting the actual production cycle of a part, which includes obtaining the processing cycle Q of the part A, the machine tool and the process; calculating the processing coefficient K of the machine tool, and the processing coefficient K of the machine tool is the average processing cycle of this type of machine tool in the same process Ratio to the average processing cycle of all types of machine tools; select two historical processing data of part A in different time ranges as samples, and calculate the average processing cycle and time correction coefficient T of the two samples respectively; multiply the processing cycle Q of part A by The machine tool processing coefficient is multiplied by the time correction coefficient T to obtain the predicted processing cycle Z of A part. In the present invention, the processing cycle Q of the A part is averaged, multiplied by the machine tool processing coefficient K, and then multiplied by the time correction coefficient T to obtain the predicted processing cycle Z of the A part. Since the samples in the past three months are closer to the current processing level and mechanical level, the time correction factor is used to increase the accuracy of the prediction of the actual production cycle of the parts.
Description
technical field [0001] The invention relates to the technical field of cycle prediction methods, in particular to a method for predicting the actual production cycle of parts. Background technique [0002] In the prior art, the parts production cycle used in the production management of aircraft manufacturing in the aviation industry lacks prediction methods, and only inferences or estimates are made based on historical data. Parts processing requires the use of many different types of machine tools, and various types of machine tools may participate in one or more parts processing processes. Therefore, it is impossible to accurately estimate the processing time of parts based on various machine tools. Contents of the invention [0003] The purpose of the present invention is to provide a method for predicting the actual production cycle of a part, which is used to solve the problem in the prior art that the processing cycle cannot be accurately predicted according to the ...
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