Method for predicting blocking probability of optical cable network based on social development and climate factors
A climate factor, optical cable network technology, applied in the direction of forecasting, probability network, based on specific mathematical models, etc., can solve problems such as complex processing, difficult implementation, difficult to predict, etc., to achieve high flexibility, improve efficiency, and strong guidance sexual effect
Active Publication Date: 2018-05-01
中国人民解放军国防信息学院
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This is an a posteriori method, which needs to judge the fault from the alarm information caused after the fault occurs. It is difficult to implement and the processing process is complicated. It is difficult to use it in the prediction of line inspection.
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[0064] The technical solutions of the present invention will be further described below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings and embodiments.
[0065] The invention proposes a method for predicting the blocking probability of an optical cable network based on social development and climate factors. The present invention takes into account that social development and meteorological factors play a vital role in cable network forecasting. There are two main reasons for the interruption of the optical cable network. One is the internal cause, that is, the interruption caused by the aging of the line or equipment. The equipment of the optical cable network is fine and the lines are mostly buried underground. It is difficult to detect this type of interruption by manual line inspection. The second is the external cause, that is, the blockage caused by the change of the external environment, such as: physical damage caused by pipeline or real estate construction, temperature...
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The invention provides a method for predicting the blocking probability of an optical cable network based on social development and climate factors, and the method comprises the steps: determining a station, inputting the attribute data correlated with the station, determining a data search time range according to a daily line patrol rule and the social development and climate data, and determining the social development attribute data and climate attribute information at different stations in a corresponding period; setting fault levels, and carrying out the normalization of all attribute data; constructing a prediction model for the fault probability of the optical cable network based on machine learning, and predicting the blocking probability of the optical cable network according to the prediction model when the precision meets the conditions. The method can achieve the accurately provide a prediction result of the fault of the optical cable network, enables the line patrol maintenance of the optical cable network to be more targeted, and facilitates the improvement of the efficiency of a line patrol worker of the optical cable network.
Description
technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the field of data mining and analysis, and in particular relates to a method for predicting the blocking probability of an optical cable network based on social development and climate factors. Background technique [0002] Optical cable network is an important part of my country's public communication network, the cornerstone of the information highway, and an important factor affecting social development and people's daily life. It is an important principle to maintain the optical cable network to strengthen the patrol work of the optical cable network, eliminate hidden dangers, and avoid failures. However, the current situation of maintaining the optical cable network is that there are fewer people and more lines, which brings great difficulty to the maintenance work. Therefore, an effective method for predicting the blocking probability of the optical cable network plays an important role in improving the work efficiency o...
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Login to View More IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/04G06Q10/06G06Q50/30G06N7/00
CPCG06Q10/04G06Q10/0639G06N7/01G06Q50/40
Inventor 吴照林张海粟王芳王龙李韬伟刘鹏飞李行李华初戴剑伟曾昭文朱明东张胜冯勤群
Owner 中国人民解放军国防信息学院