A Method for Evaluation of Rail Transit Emergency Plan
An emergency plan, rail transit technology, applied in the field of emergency management to achieve the effect of improving accuracy, increasing reliability and effectiveness
Active Publication Date: 2021-06-01
SOUTHEAST UNIV
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Problems solved by technology
[0005] Technical problem: In order to overcome the deficiencies in the emergency plan management of rail transit operating enterprises in the prior art, the present invention provides a rail transit emergency plan evaluation method, which uses a fuzzy neural network method to establish a regression relationship between pre-evaluation results and post-evaluation results , and use the artificial bee colony algorithm to optimize the model learning algorithm, improve the evaluation accuracy of the emergency plan, and obtain the predicted implementation effect of the emergency plan that has not been implemented
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[0070] The technical solutions of the present invention will be further described below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings and specific embodiments.
[0071] Step1. Selection of evaluation indicators
[0072] The emergency preparedness capability, risk analysis capability, event warning capability, emergency response capability and aftermath disposal capability are selected as the input indicators of the rail transit emergency plan evaluation model; the direct economic losses caused by the event, the execution time of the plan and the impact of the event on passenger flow are selected as the output indicators .
[0073] Step2, data statistics and processing
[0074] Select some emergency plans of a rail transit operating company as the evaluation object, and set the number of emergency plans n=10.
[0075] For the input index data, set the number of evaluators m = 10, and organize the evaluators to score each element of the selected emergency plan under the condit...
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The invention discloses an evaluation method of a rail transit emergency plan, which comprises the following steps: firstly, the evaluation index of the evaluator and the implementation effect index of the plan are respectively selected as input and output indexes, and based on the evaluation data and accident information, a fuzzy neural network is used to establish a track The evaluation model of traffic emergency plan, on this basis, combines the artificial bee colony algorithm and the error-correction learning algorithm to learn the fuzzy neural network, and improves the artificial bee colony algorithm by increasing the attenuation factor and introducing the Metropolis criterion. The present invention establishes a fuzzy neural network evaluation model, and proposes an error-correction learning algorithm based on the optimization of the improved artificial bee colony algorithm, which can be used to obtain the evaluation results of evaluators and the implementation effect of the emergency plan in the evaluation process of the rail transit emergency plan The relationship between them, correct the influence of evaluators’ subjective factors on the evaluation results, and finally get the predicted implementation effect, and provide method support for emergency plan management.
Description
technical field [0001] The invention relates to an emergency management method, in particular to a rail transit emergency plan evaluation method. Background technique [0002] With the improvement of safety awareness of rail transit operating companies, major domestic rail transit operating companies have established a rail transit emergency plan system, and use it as one of the important means to deal with emergencies. However, my country has not yet formed an effective mechanism in the field of rail transit emergency plan management. The management level is low and the management means are single. The necessary theoretical support has the problems of high cost, large organizational strength and poor effect. [0003] At present, some studies have been done on the evaluation of emergency plans at home and abroad, which can be divided into two types according to the evaluation time: pre-evaluation of emergency plans and post-evaluation of emergency plans. Pre-evaluation refe...
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IPC IPC(8): G06Q50/30G06Q50/26G06Q10/06G06N3/00G06N3/08G06N3/04
CPCG06N3/006G06N3/084G06Q10/0639G06Q50/265G06N3/043G06Q50/40
Inventor 张宁贺申戴斌石庄彬
Owner SOUTHEAST UNIV