Photovoltaic power generation on-line short-term prediction method based on dynamic correlation of sky brightness information

A technology of dynamic association and photovoltaic power generation, applied in forecasting, information technology support systems, instruments, etc., can solve the problems of large impact on forecasting accuracy, high price, and a large amount of historical data, so as to improve anti-interference ability and avoid accidental effects

Active Publication Date: 2018-11-06
HANGZHOU DIANZI UNIV
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Problems solved by technology

The disadvantage of this method is that a large amount of historical data is required, and the objective definition of similar days does not exist, so it is difficult to guarantee the efficiency and accuracy of prediction
(3) Considering the important influence of clouds on solar radiation, there are currently methods to obtain weather cond...

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  • Photovoltaic power generation on-line short-term prediction method based on dynamic correlation of sky brightness information
  • Photovoltaic power generation on-line short-term prediction method based on dynamic correlation of sky brightness information
  • Photovoltaic power generation on-line short-term prediction method based on dynamic correlation of sky brightness information

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Embodiment Construction

[0011] An online short-term prediction method of photovoltaic power generation based on dynamic association of sky brightness information, the method specifically includes the following steps:

[0012] Step 1: From the moment of sunrise, dynamically track the sun with an industrial wide-angle camera equipped with a filter on the 3D gimbal, and take a photo of the local sky centered on the sun every T seconds; T is the dynamic correlation of sky brightness information The sampling interval is set to 30-60 seconds.

[0013] Step 2: Record the instantaneous power of photovoltaic power generation; set the instantaneous power of photovoltaic power generation at time t as p(t), construct a vector P(t), corresponding to a row vector with length (q+1), as shown in formula (1) .

[0014] P(t)=(p(t-qT),...,p(t-T),p(t)) (1)

[0015] Among them, q represents the effective sampling interval for the dynamic association of sky brightness information, q is taken as an even number, and the p...

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Abstract

The invention relates to a photovoltaic power generation on-line short-term prediction method based on dynamic correlation of sky brightness information. Aiming at uncontrollability of photovoltaic power generation, a new on-line short-term prediction method for photovoltaic power generation is proposed, taking into account the direct factors influencing photovoltaic power generation, such as solar radiation, clouds, weather pollution and temperature, and changing the traditional prediction idea based on a complex photovoltaic generator model, being different from the classification and matching algorithm based on a large amount of historical data, and being different from the method based on low-precision cloud image acquisition and mobile prediction. The photovoltaic power generation on-line short-term prediction method based on dynamic correlation of sky brightness information directly utilizes a low-cost industrial wide-angle camera to obtain sky brightness information to characterize the integrated state of solar radiation, clouds and weather pollution at the photovoltaic array field, utilizes the characteristics of dynamic correlation of the sky brightness information, and realizes the on-line short-term prediction of photovoltaic power generation based on the actual output of the photovoltaic array collected in the field at the same time.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the field of photovoltaic power generation, relates to image processing technology, and specifically relates to an online short-term prediction method of photovoltaic power generation power based on dynamic correlation of sky brightness information. Background technique [0002] Solar photovoltaic power generation is considered as an important alternative to conventional power generation due to its renewability and zero pollution. However, due to uncontrollable meteorological conditions, photovoltaic power generation cannot provide stable and continuous power supply like traditional power generation methods. It is of great significance to improve the stable operation of the power system including photovoltaic power generation system. [0003] The current photovoltaic power prediction methods mainly include: (1) Construct a photovoltaic power generation model based on solar radiation and the working mechanism of solar cells. T...

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Application Information

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IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/04G06Q50/06
CPCG06Q10/04G06Q50/06Y04S10/50
Inventor 郑凌蔚刘兆坤
Owner HANGZHOU DIANZI UNIV
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