A load forecasting method based on gis technology that can meet the requirements of large-area space saturation

Abstract

The embodiment of the invention discloses a GIS-technology-based space saturation load prediction method capable of meeting a large area range, which comprises the following steps of: completing information matching of a land parcel to which a distribution transformer belongs according to a land parcel boundary, a point load and a distribution transformer position; utilizing a data mining and analyzing technology to analyze load characteristics of the prediction area, and establishing an index library and a parameter library required by load prediction of the prediction area by referring to other data; carrying out classification and assignment on the land parcels in the prediction area, carrying out matching selection on corresponding prediction methods and parameter selection according to land parcel classification and combination conditions, and carrying out land parcel space saturation load prediction; according to the application needs, the total saturation load of the station, district, and city levels is completed, and the spatial saturation load forecasting summary load results is checked; according to the method, basic information and data needed by spatial load predictionare optimized and integrated, spatial load characteristics are refined, law analysis is carried out, multi-scale spatial resolution power load multi-stage coordination is achieved, and the predictionresult can be more accurate.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the technical field of power system planning, in particular to a GIS-based technology-based load prediction method that can satisfy large-area spatial saturation. Background technique [0002] The basis of power system planning is spatial load forecasting (SLF). With the lean management of power systems in recent years, spatial power load has become the most concerned issue in the power industry. Spatial power load forecasting is also called spatial load forecasting, which mainly judges the value and orientation of power load within a certain range. Along with the economic development, the electric power load increases rapidly for a period of time, and then enters a low-speed and gentle growth stage until it reaches the maximum value. At this time, the corresponding load is the saturated load. The above-mentioned growth characteristics of electric load can be simulated by Logistic curve. [0003] The prediction of the value a...

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Problems solved by technology

[0009] (1) In the existing space-saturated load forecasting, the proposal and implementation of the forecasting method will inevitably be affected and restricted by factors such as the basic data used, the environment and conditions of the application, the spatial error of the forecast and its evaluation criteria, etc., making the forecasting The accuracy of the results is low;

[0010] (2) In the existing space saturated load forecasting, the data processing volume of space power load is large. With the improvement of spatial resolution, the number of power supply districts in the system is increasing, which can be said to be large in quantity and wide in scope. The law of load change has its own characteristics, and it is difficult for forecasters to deeply analyze the characteristics one by one;

[0011] (3) In the existing space-saturated load forecasting, usually only one forecasting result is provided, if it is generally used as the only load basis for forming power system planning schemes under different circumstances, then the final planning scheme will obviously not be the best

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