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Method for calculating wind power prediction credibility under multi-weather conditions

A technology of weather conditions and calculation methods, applied in the field of power grids, can solve problems such as low accuracy of cluster wind power forecasting, high requirements for integration and time length, and difficult modeling

Inactive Publication Date: 2019-03-29
STATE GRID LIAONING ELECTRIC POWER RES INST +2
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AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

In order to accurately predict the power of wind power clusters, it is necessary to predict the overall development and change of its output from the perspective of the region as a whole. It is difficult to model, so the accuracy of cluster wind power prediction is not high

Method used

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  • Method for calculating wind power prediction credibility under multi-weather conditions
  • Method for calculating wind power prediction credibility under multi-weather conditions
  • Method for calculating wind power prediction credibility under multi-weather conditions

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Embodiment 1

[0107] The invention is a method for calculating the reliability of wind power forecasting under multi-weather conditions, including:

[0108] Assuming that the current light intensity is 1367W / h, the air humidity h is 0.3, the ambient temperature t is 23 degrees Celsius and the wind speed v is 10m / min, the predicted power generation power of the wind farm is P f is 100MW, the current abandoned wind power P qf It is 20MW.

[0109] Calculate the wind power forecast error as a function of weather conditions for different weather conditions. Through years of data analysis, and a comparative analysis of wind power forecasts and actual power output under different weather conditions.

[0110] Step 1: Substitute light intensity g of 1367W / h, air humidity h of 0.3, ambient temperature t of 23 degrees Celsius and wind speed v of 10m / min into the following formula:

[0111]

[0112] In the above formula, e h Indicates the h power of e, e represents an irrational number, lne=1. ...

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Abstract

The invention belongs to the technical field of power grids, and especially relates to a method for calculating wind power prediction credibility under multi-weather conditions. Under a condition thata large number of wind power is continuously connected to a grid, calculating reliability of wind power prediction and reducing capacity of a standby unit become particularly important. The method includes acquiring data; calculating a function relationship between wind power prediction error and weather conditions under different weather conditions, through multi-year data analysis and comparison and analysis of wind power prediction and actual developed power under different weather conditions; at a load peak moment, calculating relations between a certain interval and wind power predictioncredibility, when load reaches the peak moment, calculating error of the wind power actual developed power and predicted power; and according to current amount of abandoned wind and wind power prediction, performing unit combination according to the wind power credibility, to reduce investment of a standby unit. The method prevents direct prediction of wind power, directly calculates a wind powerprediction error at the peak moment, improves wind power prediction credibility, rationally combines units, and reduces investment of a standby generating unit.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the technical field of power grids, and in particular relates to a method for calculating the reliability of wind power prediction under multi-weather conditions. Under the condition that a large amount of wind power is continuously connected to the grid, it is particularly important to calculate the reliability of wind power prediction and reduce the capacity of standby units. Background technique [0002] In the current power system with a large number of wind power grid-connected, due to the uncertainty of wind power output, certain errors will occur in the process of wind power output prediction, and even in the process of weather data collection, due to large data errors, Even wind power forecasts are wrong. While making arrangements for the power generation plan, due to the inaccuracy of wind power forecasting, it is necessary to calculate the corresponding margin of wind power. Since the wind power prediction error is d...

Claims

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Application Information

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IPC IPC(8): H02J3/38H02J3/24
CPCH02J3/003H02J3/24H02J3/386Y02A30/00Y02E10/76
Inventor 葛维春左浩朱钰李家珏张铁岩王顺江高凯葛延峰李铁崔岱周桂平周小明
Owner STATE GRID LIAONING ELECTRIC POWER RES INST
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