Irradiation property weather scene-based photovoltaic power generation acceptance estimation model

Abstract

An irradiation property weather scene-based photovoltaic power generation acceptance estimation model comprises the steps of analyzing and acquiring distribution property and random property of photovoltaic contribution according to running data of a solar photovoltaic system, and respectively modeling a certainty part and a randomness part of the solar photovoltaic contribution; simulating son irradiation intensity of an arbitrary place on earth at an arbitrary moment under the condition of no shielding by building a global solar radiation model with regard to the certainty part of the solarphotovoltaic contribution, and calculating an upper limit value of photovoltaic forecast contribution; modeling a photovoltaic power generation randomness part by a photovoltaic shielding factor withregard to the random part of the solar photovoltaic contribution, building a photovoltaic shielding factor probability distribution model to obtain a random part simulation value of the photovoltaic contribution, and generating a contribution time sequence of a solar photovoltaic system by superposing results of the certainty part and the randomness part. By the method, the problem of power grid running uncertainty under large-scale new energy grid connection is solved, and the running capability and effect of a power grid are improved.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the technical field of electric power operation, and in particular to a photovoltaic power generation admission evaluation model based on meteorological scenes of radiation characteristics. Background technique [0002] With the rapid development of new energy in my country, the randomness and intermittent nature of new energy output have brought a greater impact on the operation and planning of the power system. Due to the randomness, volatility and uncertainty of new energy output, large-scale new energy power generation grid connection will have a significant impact on the power output structure, operating form, energy saving and economical aspects of the power system: [0003] 1) When large-scale new energy is connected to the grid, the system has uncertainties not only on the load side, but also on the power generation side. Therefore, it is necessary to reserve more reserves to cope with the uncertainty of new energy out...

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Problems solved by technology

[0009] The present invention provides a photovoltaic power generation reception evaluation model based on meteorological scenarios with radiation characteristics, which is used to solve the problem of grid operation uncertainty under large-scale new energy grid-connected, improve grid operation capabilities, improve grid operation, and planning effects, thereby alleviating the current The problem of insufficient consumption of new energy plays an important role in promoting the development of renewable energy in China and the implementation of energy conservation, emission reduction and low-carbon development strategies

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