Mountain torrent risk dynamic assessment method

Abstract

The invention discloses a mountain torrent risk dynamic assessment method. The method comprises the following steps: step 1, determining an assessment object and a risk assessment index; Step 2, determining a current risk assessment level; Step 3, judging the risk degree; And 4, dynamically assessing the mountain torrent risk. According to the dynamic mountain torrent risk assessment method provided by the invention, the assessment result not only comprises the grade of the mountain torrent risk, but also comprises the degree close to a certain risk grade, and the dynamic assessment of the mountain torrent risk is carried out based on real-time monitoring data or simulation forecast data of a model, so that a more effective decision basis is provided for mountain torrent disaster defense.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the technical field of flood defense, in particular to a dynamic assessment method for mountain torrent risk, which is mainly used for mountain torrent risk assessment and early warning decision-making. Background technique [0002] Mountain torrent disasters are the main disasters that cause casualties among the current natural disasters in our country, and they are also the difficulties and weak links in our country's flood defense work. It has the characteristics of multiple points and wide areas, obvious seasonality and regionality, frequent outbreaks, rapid disaster formation, and strong destructive power. After 10 years of construction of engineering and non-engineering facilities, not only the defense level of mountain torrent disasters has been improved, but also a large amount of reliable basic data has been accumulated, including mountain torrent disaster investigation and evaluation data, land use and vegetation type...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

The assessment based on the risk of hazard factors is based on the analysis of hazard factors, delineating the hazard zone and hazard level, and establishing a prediction model for the range of the hazard zone. However, the determination of the weight of each hazard factor is highly subjective, and the level of the hazard zone There is no unified standard for division, which is not conducive to popularization and application; vulnerability analysis is to explore its sensitivity and resistance from the perspective of the hazard-bearing body, and evaluate the vulnerability of the hazard-bearing body through matrix methods, index methods, and curve methods. The assessment of body vulnerability needs to consider many factors, and the complex connection among them is difficult to be expressed by models, and its accuracy cannot be guaranteed due to the influence of differences in natural or social factors. When the rainfall in a certain period of time in a small watershed reaches or exceeds a certain critical value, the resulting flood is exactly equal to the disaster flow, which is used for risk assessment. Can be popularized and applied; more factors are considered in comprehensive risk assessment, and there are various methods, without forming a unified normative and theoretical framework, it is not suitable for application, and it is currently limited to the research stage

[0004] Therefore, the applicability of various flash flood risk assessment methods is not strong at present, and the application effect is poor, and the assessment objects of most flash flood risk assessment methods are not clear, it is difficult to be applied in practice, and cannot provide help for flash flood early warning and decision-making

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