A short-term load prediction method considering somatosensory temperature and radiation intensity

A technology for short-term load prediction and somatosensory temperature, applied in data processing applications, instruments, computing, etc., can solve problems that have not been effectively solved, and achieve the effect of reducing neural network dimensions and improving training efficiency

Active Publication Date: 2019-06-14
NARI TECH CO LTD +4
5 Cites 8 Cited by

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Problems solved by technology

However, how to comprehensively consider meteorological factors such as temperature and humidity and th...
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Abstract

The invention discloses a short-term load prediction method considering somatosensory temperature and radiation intensity. The short-term load prediction method comprises the following steps of 1) inquiring sample data such as historical load and weather; 2) calculating historical somatosensory temperature data and a daily load level; 3) selecting an optimal'mode similar day 'from the historical sample data set on the basis of the day type information and meteorological data of the to-be-predicted day, and finally calculating to obtain a normalized load curve; 4) establishing a neural networkprediction model considering the somatosensory temperature and the sunlight intensity to obtain the load level of the to-be-predicted day; and 5) calculating load data of the to-be-predicted day through the normalization curve and the load level. According to the method, the influence on the somatosensory temperature of the load and the sunlight intensity of the distributed photovoltaic power generation are fully considered, the change rule of the historical load is fully considered, the load level and the load mode are separately predicted, the input dimension of the neural network is reduced, the network training load is reduced, and the calculation efficiency is improved.

Application Domain

Technology Topic

Training loadPrediction methods +8

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  • A short-term load prediction method considering somatosensory temperature and radiation intensity
  • A short-term load prediction method considering somatosensory temperature and radiation intensity
  • A short-term load prediction method considering somatosensory temperature and radiation intensity

Examples

  • Experimental program(1)

Example Embodiment

[0049] The present invention will be further described below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings.
[0050] like figure 1 As shown, an implementation case of the present invention includes adopting the method of the present invention, and its characteristics, purpose and advantages can be seen from the steps of the embodiment in the process of short-term load forecasting.
[0051] A short-term load forecasting method considering body temperature and radiation intensity, which specifically includes the following steps:
[0052] Step 1: Query the daily load and meteorological and daily type information of historical dates as sample data. The sample data mainly includes: daily 96-point load data, daily 24-hour meteorological data and daily type information in the past five years.
[0053] Step 2: Calculate the 24-hour historical somatosensory temperature data, daily maximum load and daily minimum load of historical dates. Historical somatosensory temperature T g Calculated as follows:
[0054]
[0055] Among them, T a is the temperature, h is the humidity, and v is the wind speed.
[0056] The third step: according to the date to be predicted, select a reasonable sample set; respectively establish the maximum load forecast training model and the minimum load forecast training model. Its input includes: input variables include the historical body temperature and radiation intensity of the past N days, the daily maximum load value and the daily minimum load value of the past N days; the historical body temperature and radiation intensity of the day to be predicted; the output is: the daily maximum Load, daily minimum load value. like figure 2 shown. After model training, the daily peak load and daily minimum load of the day to be predicted are respectively predicted.
[0057] Step 4: From the historical sample data set, use the agglomerative hierarchical clustering algorithm to conduct cluster analysis on the daily load curves of the past 5 years; select the actual day of a specific class according to the day type of the day to be predicted, and calculate the actual day in the class. The weather data of the day to be predicted and the forecast weather data of the day to be predicted are used for deviation analysis, and the weather data with similar weather data is selected as the "similar model day" of the day to be predicted; load factor.
[0058] Step 5: Calculate the 96-point load data on the day to be predicted by using the normalized load system and the daily maximum load value and daily minimum load value on the day to be predicted.
[0059] The actual application effect of the present invention:
[0060] The technical scheme of the invention is applied in the short-term system load forecasting of a certain provincial power grid, and the application effect meets expectations. Practical application shows that the present invention can comprehensively consider the influence of body temperature and sunlight radiation intensity on the grid load, effectively reduce the prediction error and improve the prediction accuracy on the basis of reducing the amount of calculation.
[0061] The basic principles, main features and advantages of the present invention have been shown and described above. Those skilled in the industry should understand that the present invention is not limited by the above-mentioned embodiments. What are described in the above-mentioned embodiments and the description only illustrate the principle of the present invention. Without departing from the spirit and scope of the present invention, the present invention will also have Variations and improvements are possible, which fall within the scope of the claimed invention. The protection scope of the present invention is defined by the appended claims and their equivalents.
[0062] The above is only a preferred embodiment of the present invention, it should be pointed out that for those of ordinary skill in the art, without departing from the principle of the present invention, some improvements and modifications can also be made, and these improvements and modifications are also possible. It should be regarded as the protection scope of the present invention.
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