Method for predicting take-off and landing amount of large busy airport terminal area containing planned airport

Abstract

The invention discloses a method for predicting the take-off and landing amount of a large busy airport terminal area containing a planned airport. The method comprises the following steps: firstly, proposing a concept of annual average aviation travel times and passenger population in a region, and obtaining a formula of takeoff and landing sorties through a conversion relation between takeoff and landing amounts and throughput capacities; determining a traffic circle of a large busy airport terminal area, allocating passenger plane population in the traffic circle, and correcting the passenger plane population; predicting the annual average aviation travel frequency and the passenger plane population of the region, and obtaining predicted values of annual and daily average take-off and landing sorties through a formula. Besides, a concept of airspace quadrant division is provided, an existing airport time table is used as a reference time table, and the flight quantity and distribution of each hour of a predicted day are obtained through the flight quantity and quadrant distribution of the airspace quadrant division and the flight quantity expansion speed of the terminal area. The method fills up the blank of the flow prediction method containing the planned airport terminal area, is accurate in flow prediction, and can provide data support for airspace planning of the largebusy airport terminal area.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the field of air traffic management, in particular to a method for predicting the take-off and landing volume of a large-scale busy airport terminal area including a planned airport based on the travel demand of passengers. Background technique [0002] There are two common evaluation indicators for airport flow demand: throughput and take-off and landing. Airport take-off and landing volume is an important indicator reflecting the transportation capacity of the airport terminal area, and its accurate forecast data can provide data support for airport operation and terminal area planning. However, the application background of most existing airport take-off and landing forecast methods is mainly the airports in operation, and my country is in the blowout period of civil aviation development, and there are a large number of planned airports, so it cannot be directly applied to the take-off and landing forecast of the operational...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

[0003] Aiming at the problem that there are few forecasting methods and low prediction accuracy for the current large-scale busy airport terminal area with planned airport, the present invention proposes a large-scale busy terminal area with planned airport based on the actual demand of passengers within the airport service range. The drop forecast method, the forecast results cover the annual take-off and landing, daily take-off and landing, and hourly take-off and landing including the flow quadrant distribution of the large busy airport terminal area

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