Wind speed numerical forecasting correction method based on anomaly deviation, and system thereof

Abstract

The invention discloses a wind speed numerical forecasting correction method based on anomaly deviation, and a system thereof. The wind speed numerical forecasting correction method comprises the steps: obtaining historical real-time wind speed data and historical prediction wind speed data, and calculating the average value of the historical real-time wind speed data and the historical predictionwind speed data; selecting a time period to be predicted, and calculating a real-time wind speed average value, a real-time wind speed anomaly value, a predicted wind speed average value and a predicted wind speed anomaly value; selecting a certain moment point t in the to-be-predicted time period, calculating a real-time wind speed anomaly value and a predicted wind speed anomaly value of the moment point t, and calculating an anomaly deviation value of the moment point t according to the real-time wind speed anomaly value and the predicted wind speed anomaly value; calculating the anomaly deviation value of the to-be-measured time point t + 1 according to the anomaly deviation value of the time point t; and correcting the wind speed data at the moment t + 1 to be measured according to the predicted wind speed data at the moment t + 1 to be measured, the historical actual wind speed data average value, the historical predicted wind speed data average value and the anomaly deviation value at the moment t + 1 to be measured so as to provide information for forecasting the wind speed data.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the field of electrical engineering, and specifically discloses a wind speed numerical forecast correction method and system based on anomaly deviation. Background technique [0002] As a clean and renewable energy source, wind energy is playing an increasingly important role in the grid. However, the wind speed forecast is still relatively unstable, resulting in a large error in wind power forecasting. In order to ensure the need of wind power grid connection, it is urgent to carry out fine wind speed prediction. [0003] At present, numerical models have been widely used in the forecasting of meteorological elements. However, due to the model's initial field error, model error, and local terrain conditions, the wind speed and wind direction simulated by the model still have large errors, which cannot meet the actual business needs of wind power prediction. Some studies have proposed to use statistical methods to correct th...

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Problems solved by technology

[0005] The purpose of the present invention is to provide a wind speed numerical forecast correction method and system based on anomaly deviation, so as to solve the technical defects of large wind speed forecast error, difficult selection of forecast factors and large amount of calculation in the prior art

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