Generation method and system based on wind power/photovoltaic classic scene set

Abstract

The invention provides a generation method and system based on a wind power / photovoltaic classic scene set. The generation method comprises the steps of S100, performing point prediction on wind power / photovoltaic output; s200, combining the wind power / photovoltaic point prediction data and the actual measurement data to perform normalization processing on the point prediction error, and dividingthe point prediction error into a training set and a test set; s300, constructing an error neural network quantile regression model by utilizing the error training set data to obtain corresponding parameters; s400, testing the neural network quantile regression model of the trained error by using the test set, and deriving the probability density distribution of the error; s500, carrying out Latinhypercube sampling on the error probability density function at different moments, performing processing to obtain a wind power / photovoltaic output sample, and carrying out Cholesky decomposition onthe sample to obtain a plurality of initial scenes; and S600, performing preliminary reduction on the initial scene, and then performing scene reduction by adopting a backward reduction method to obtain a classic scene set.

Description

technical field [0001] The present invention relates to the generation of a set of new energy output scenarios, in particular to a method for generating and reducing scenarios related to wind power / photovoltaic output. Background technique [0002] Facing the depletion of traditional fossil energy, the penetration rate of new energy generation represented by wind energy and solar energy in the power grid is increasing day by day. However, wind power and photovoltaic output are random, fluctuating and intermittent, which poses challenges to the long-term planning, medium-term operation and short-term dispatch of the power grid. The short-term forecasting accuracy of the current new energy output forecasting software is acceptable, but with the increase of the forecasting time scale, the forecasting accuracy also decreases. Scenario analysis technology describes the random characteristics of output by constructing a small number of time series scenarios with probabilistic cha...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

[0007] The present invention provides a method for generating classic scene sets of wind power / photovoltaic output, which provides data support for power grid scheduling, and solves the problem of power grid scheduling caused by insufficient prediction accuracy of existing wind power / photovoltaic points

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