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Equipment residual life prediction method and system

A technology for life prediction and equipment, applied in computer-aided design, design optimization/simulation, instruments, etc., to achieve the effect of improving prediction accuracy

Active Publication Date: 2020-02-28
中国人民解放军火箭军工程大学
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  • Summary
  • Abstract
  • Description
  • Claims
  • Application Information

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Problems solved by technology

At present, there is a lack of relevant research on using accelerated degradation data as prior information to conduct statistical inference using condition monitoring data

Method used

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  • Equipment residual life prediction method and system
  • Equipment residual life prediction method and system
  • Equipment residual life prediction method and system

Examples

Experimental program
Comparison scheme
Effect test

Embodiment

[0167] Taking a certain type of military electrical connector as an example, verify the effectiveness of the proposed method of the present invention, the verification object includes the method for predicting the remaining life of equipment based on the fusion of accelerated degradation data and actual degradation data proposed by the present invention (denoted as m 1 ), the residual life prediction method based on Wiener process fusion accelerated degradation data and actual degradation data (denoted as M 2 ) and the remaining life prediction method based on logarithmic transformation data lnX(t) (denoted as M 3 ).

[0168] The normal working stress S of the sample 0 = 20°C, 24 samples were randomly selected, respectively under three kinds of accelerated stress S 1 =60°C, S 2 =80°C, S 3 = The accelerated degradation test was performed at 100°C, and 8 samples were assigned to each stress. Assume that at stress S 1 30 measurements are taken at intervals of 48 hours; at ...

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Abstract

The invention discloses an equipment residual life prediction method and system. The method comprises the following steps: establishing an equipment degradation mathematical model based on a nonlineardiffusion process; obtaining an estimated value of the equipment degradation parameter under the acceleration stress as first data; calculating a degradation parameter value under normal working stress according to the first data to obtain second data; determining the distribution type of the second data through goodness-of-fit test; obtaining a posteriori distribution function and an expected value of the second data according to the distribution type of the second data; obtaining a first residual life probability density function according to the posteriori distribution function, the expected value and the equipment degradation mathematical model; correcting the first residual life probability density function according to a total probability formula to obtain a second residual life probability density function; and predicting the residual life of the equipment according to the second residual life probability density function. The prediction precision of the residual life of the equipment can be improved.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the technical field of reliability engineering, in particular to a method and system for predicting the remaining life of equipment. Background technique [0002] In recent years, more and more long-life and high-reliability equipment have appeared in the fields of aerospace and military industry. Accurate life determination of these equipment is an important prerequisite for maintaining equipment performance and doing a good job in preventive maintenance. For such high-reliability equipment, failure is difficult to occur even in accelerated life tests, and traditional methods based on failure data cannot effectively predict the life of such equipment. Part of the performance indicators of some products will degrade with the test time. By measuring and statistically analyzing the performance degradation during the degradation process, the life information of the product can be predicted without waiting for the product to fail, ...

Claims

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Applications(China)
IPC IPC(8): G06F30/20G06F119/04G06F119/14
Inventor 胡昌华庞哲楠司小胜李天梅张建勋杜党波郑建飞
Owner 中国人民解放军火箭军工程大学
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