Risk assessment method for icing disasters with different spans in ice period of power transmission line

Abstract

The invention discloses a risk assessment method for icing disasters with different spans in the ice period of a power transmission line. The method comprises the following steps that: topographic factors under different spans of the power transmission line, meteorological factors in the ice period and corresponding conductor icing thicknesses in the same period are extracted; after the ice periodis finished, maximum icing thicknesses and meteorological factor parameter values in the same period are obtained, the validity of the data is screened through adopting a double mean deviation method; normalization processing is carried out on the factor parameters; on the basis of the normalized data of the topographic factors under the different spans of the power transmission line, the meteorological factors and the maximum icing thicknesses, a principal component analysis method is adopted to calculate a variance cumulative contribution rate, a condition that the cumulative variance contribution rate is greater than 90% is adopted as a principal component selection condition; and finally, an icing disaster risk assessment model of different spans of the power transmission line in theice period is established through adopting the principal component selection condition. With the method adopted, the problem that an existing method for evaluating the line icing disaster risks of thesame line under different spans is limited in data analysis function due to incomplete and inaccurate data can be solved.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the field of risk assessment of icing disasters on power transmission lines, and in particular relates to a risk assessment method for icing disasters of different gear distances during the ice period of transmission lines. Background technique [0002] In recent years, with the alternation of El Niño and La Niña, global warming has led to an increasing probability of extreme weather. From November 2017 to February 2018, the southern region experienced four rounds of cold waves, which lasted for nearly three months. During this period, the scope and intensity of ice covering transmission lines of the Southern Power Grid were the largest since 2008. The low-temperature, rainy and snowy weather caused 2,968 transmission and distribution lines within the power supply range of China Southern Power Grid to be covered with ice. Severe icing of transmission grid equipment has led to accidents such as part of the transmission line fal...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

[0004] The technical problem to be solved by the present invention is to provide a method for assessing the risk of icing disasters in different spans of transmission lines during the ice period, so as to solve the problem of incomplete data and insufficient Accurate, leading to problems such as limited data analysis functions; resulting in inability to grasp the icing situation on site in a timely manner, certain calculation errors in the ice thickness calculation model itself, and inability to grasp the icing situation of lines without ice monitoring terminal sections and other technical problems

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