Squall line system forecasting method and forecasting system

A squall line and short-line technology, applied in the field of methods and forecast systems, can solve problems such as misjudgment, identification and forecast accuracy limitations, and achieve the effects of accurate identification, accurate forecast effect, and good fitting ability.

Inactive Publication Date: 2020-08-04
STATE GRID JIANGSU ELECTRIC POWER CO ELECTRIC POWER RES INST +2
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  • Abstract
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  • Claims
  • Application Information

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

At present, the research on squall line gale mainly focuses on the case analysis of the weather process. The forecast of squall line gale is still b

Method used

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  • Squall line system forecasting method and forecasting system

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Embodiment Construction

[0035] In order to illustrate the technical scheme of the present invention more clearly, the present invention will be further described below; Obviously, what is described below is only a part of the embodiment, for those of ordinary skill in the art, without paying creative work Under the premise, the technical solution of the present invention can also be applied to other similar scenarios according to these; in order to illustrate the technical solution of the present invention more clearly, the technical solution of the present invention will be further described in detail below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings:

[0036] As shown in the figure; a method for forecasting a squall line system, the specific steps include the following:

[0037] (1.1), data preprocessing:

[0038] Obtain real-time radar base data of multiple Doppler radar sites, use multi-layer echoes of different elevation angles in the acquired radar base data to perform three-dimensional filte...

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Abstract

The invention discloses a novel squall line system forecasting method and forecasting system and belongs to the field of squall line forecasting and disaster prevention and reduction. The invention provides a forecasting method and a corresponding forecasting system through steps of quality control, narrow band echo identification, convergence line identification, squall line wind positioning andearly warning and squall line wind forecasting. Based on quality control of radar original base data, structural features and geometrical features of narrow-band echoes of an intensity field are fullyutilized, and a bidirectional gradient algorithm is designed to identify the narrow-band echoes; an abrupt change of wind is identified through radial convergence in a velocity field; a squall line positioning algorithm is used for integrating bidirectional gradient and shear convergence to obtain a result; and an accurate position of squall line wind is determined, vector field extrapolation isperformed by combining an optical flow method with a neural network technology so that a two-hour short-time proximity prediction service is provided, a squall line weather system in a radar echo canbe identified and positioned, 0-2-hour short-time proximity forecasting can be realized, and a forecasting effect is accurate.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to weather forecast technology, in particular to a method and a forecast system for short-term nowcasting of squall line wind. Background technique [0002] A squall line is a type of severe convective weather process. The horizontal scale is usually hundreds of kilometers, and the typical life cycle is about 6-12 hours. It is a mesoscale convective system that develops rapidly and moves fast. Thunderstorms, strong winds, heavy precipitation, hail and other strong convective weather can cause extremely strong destructive power and easily cause huge economic losses. [0003] Both squall line systems and typhoons are extreme and disastrous weather systems, and the forecasting difficulty is much greater than that of non-extreme and non-disaster weather systems. It has always been a difficult problem in international meteorological science. There have been many research results at home and abroad on the occurrence conditions and orga...

Claims

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Application Information

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IPC IPC(8): G01W1/10G01S13/95
CPCG01S13/95G01W1/10Y02A90/10
Inventor 路永玲胡成博刘洋刘建军刘子全陈舒王真张廼龙高嵩
Owner STATE GRID JIANGSU ELECTRIC POWER CO ELECTRIC POWER RES INST
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