Overhead line fault probability prediction method based on comprehensive state health degree

Abstract

The invention discloses an overhead line fault probability prediction method based on a comprehensive state health degree. The overhead line fault probability prediction method is characterized by comprising calculation of four factors of an overhead line, wherein the factors comprise aging, health degree, external weather and operation conditions. On the basis of data completeness, an algorithm can be used for calculating the fault probabilities of all lines at a time at each monitoring interval, early warning can be conducted on the lines with the high fault probabilities, the parts with many deduction items are displayed to serve as early warning reasons, and the health degree evaluation method is digitalized in rule and does not depend on evaluation after manual observation any more. The data acquisition difficulty is low, the information is comprehensive, the evaluation interval is small, and the risk change condition of the line can be continuously reflected; and the prediction result is more persuasive, and the expansibility of the proportional risk model is stronger.

Description

technical field [0001] The present invention relates to the field of electric equipment failure early warning, in particular to a method for predicting the failure probability of overhead lines based on comprehensive state health. Background technique [0002] Overhead transmission lines are important lifeline projects in power systems. For overhead lines in different time and space, analyze the failure trend and the change of load capacity, and evaluate the failure probability of the line in the future, which can improve the equipment status control and operation inspection management penetration, and promote intelligent operation inspection management change. [0003] In the fault probability model of overhead lines, the state evaluation of the line is the core. In 2008, State Grid promulgated the "Guidelines for Status Evaluation of Overhead Transmission Lines" to guide the status evaluation of overhead lines in regional power grids and provincial and municipal power gr...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

However, the actual standards of evaluation scores are different in different provinces and cities, and because they rely on manual records, not only the inspection cycle is long, but the level and standards of inspection personnel are also uneven, which makes the implementation of line status evaluation difficult and often impossible. Meet the needs of overhead line failure probability model

[0004] The general overhead line failure probability model has no unified quantitative discussion on the state quantities of different evaluation standards, and most of them are based on textual descriptions, and there are many types of state evaluation parameters, state parameters are different, and there is no unified standard, which seriously affects the Efficiency and accuracy of condition assessment

Moreover, the original equipment parameters of the equipment, family defect data, test data, environmental data, meteorological data, etc. are ignored. The one-sidedness of the data affects the accuracy of the overall state assessment

Images