Method for evaluating influence of transportation on COVID-19 propagation
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A COVID-19, transportation technology, applied in the field of disease transmission and epidemic prevention, can solve problems such as the spread of COVID-19
Active Publication Date: 2020-09-04
种鹏云
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[0007]
Transportation is the basic element and prerequisite for the development of the national economy. However, in the early stage of the outbreak of COVID-19, people's cognition of the virus has a certain process. The timeliness and effectiveness of prevention and control measures often lead to the acceleration of COVID-19 through transportation. spread
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specific Embodiment example 1
[0154] Specific implementation case 1: COVID-19 transmission simulation under the current policy using the corresponding steps of the specific implementation of the evaluation method of the present invention
[0155] Set the start date of the simulation as December 30, 2019, the government did not implement traffic control measures before January 23, 2020, the simulation step size is 1 day, and the simulation end date is May 27, 2020. The COVID-19 simulation is as follows.
[0156] Figure 10 It shows the number of latent individuals, the number of infected individuals and the number of removed individuals in city A and related areas under the current policy (city A is the epidemic area, and the areas outside it are related areas, and traffic control will be implemented on January 23, 2020). The main variables, parameters and expressions of the simulation are shown in Table 1.
[0157] The simulation results show that after the traffic control measures were adopted in the epid...
specific Embodiment example 2
[0158] Specific implementation case 2: Utilize the corresponding steps of the specific implementation of the evaluation method of the present invention to carry out the assessment of the impact of the traffic travel ratio on the spread of COVID-19
[0159] Figure 11 , 12 It shows the change of the number of infected individuals and the number of removed individuals over time in the epidemic area and related areas when the proportion of traffic travel changes. The proportions of public transport trips are set to 0.3, 0.6, and 0.8 respectively, and other simulation main variable parameters and expressions are shown in Table 1.
[0160] The results show that: with the increase of the proportion of public transport trips, the number of infected individuals and the number of removed individuals in the epidemic area did not fluctuate significantly, but the number of infected individuals and the number of removed individuals in related areas increased significantly, which was due t...
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Abstract
The invention discloses a method for evaluating the influence of transportation on COVID-19 propagation. The method comprises the following steps of: 1, investigating basic data; step 2, constructinga COVID-19 corrected SEIR and SI propagation kinetic equation under the influence of transportation; step 3, establishing a communication and transportation propagation COVID-19 system kinetic model;step 4, checking and confirming the model; and step 5, evaluating the propagation influence. According to the method, a transportation propagation COVID-19 system kinetic model is constructed according to COVID-19 propagation characteristics, and the influence of transportation on propagation COVID-19 is evaluated by controlling the change of model parameters. The method can provide a theoreticalbasis for prevention of COVID-19 diffusion, epidemic situation development trend research and judgment and the like of transportation. By means of the evaluation method, the travel requirements of people can be reduced, the travel proportion of public transport can be reduced, the virus killing work on public transport vehicles, ships and harbors can be increased, and COVID-19 propagation can be effectively slowed down.
Description
technical field [0001] The invention relates to a method for evaluating the influence of transportation on the spread of respiratory infectious diseases, in particular to a method for evaluating the influence of transportation on the spread of COVID-19, and belongs to the technical field of disease spread and epidemic prevention. Background technique [0002] (1) Industrial background [0003] Since the Severe Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) incident in 2003, the issue of disease transmission, especially the impact of transportation on infectious diseases, has attracted the attention of many scholars at home and abroad. [0004] Olse et al. found that the flight of SARS patients during the incubation period was the main reason for the rapid spread of SARS around the world, and the infection of passengers was closely related to the physical proximity of patients during the incubation period. Yang Hua et al. established a SARS "flying spot" transmission model along the traffic li...
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