Method for evaluating flood disaster social economic exposure degree based on climate mode set

Abstract

The invention provides a flood disaster social economic exposure degree evaluation method based on a climate mode set. The method comprises the steps: collecting hydrological, meteorological and underlying surface data of a research region, calibrating a watershed distributed hydrological model, and extracting the output data of a global climate mode; performing deviation correction on the output data of the global climate mode by adopting a multivariable deviation correction method to obtain a corrected global climate mode meteorological series; using the corrected global climate mode meteorological series to drive the distributed hydrological model and the hydrodynamic model to simulate the river submerging depth under the climate change scene; and evaluating the population and GDP exposure degree of the flood disaster under the influence of the climate change based on the simulation result of the step 3 by considering the dynamic population sharing the social economic path and the GDP scene. According to the method, the influence of the flood events on the social economic system under various climate change scenes is evaluated, and the method has important scientific significance on flood risk prediction and loss evaluation in the future.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the technical field of climate response assessment, and in particular relates to a method for assessing social and economic exposure to flood disasters based on climate model sets. Background technique [0002] Global climate change has changed the energy budget and water cycle process of the land-atmosphere system, and frequent extreme climate disasters such as floods have brought huge challenges to the sustainable development of the socio-economic system and the ecological environment. my country is one of the areas most affected by flood disasters. The rate of climate warming is much higher than the global average. By the end of this century, the temperature may rise by 4°C, which seriously threatens my country's flood control safety, water supply safety, food security, energy security and The ecological environment is safe. An in-depth understanding of the socioeconomic impact of flood disasters under climate change scenari...

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Problems solved by technology

[0003] In recent years, scholars at home and abroad have combined Global Climate Models (GCMs) and basin hydrological models to study the evolution of future flood disasters, but only a small number of literatures have quantitatively evaluated the impact of flood events on socio-economic systems under climate change scenarios.

At the same time, due to the difficulty of predicting the future social and economic development scenarios, the existing literature generally assumes that the future population and GDP data will remain unchanged from a certain level in the historical period, ignoring the characteristics of future social and economic dynamic development, which is not in line with social operation. The objective law of flood disasters restricts the rationality and scientificity of the social and economic impact assessment of flood disasters.

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