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Wind speed prediction method and device based on set data

A technology for wind speed forecasting and ensemble forecasting, applied in forecasting, data processing applications, neural learning methods, etc., can solve the problems of initial field error, insufficient mining of ensemble forecasting forecast uncertainty information, etc., to reduce errors and achieve good practical application. effect of value

Active Publication Date: 2021-10-22
国能日新科技股份有限公司
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Problems solved by technology

[0004] No matter for deterministic forecast or ensemble forecast, the initial field error and model error are inevitable. If ensemble forecast data is used in deterministic wind speed prediction, the ensemble averaging is generally performed directly. However, this method does not fully exploit the ensemble forecast. Forecast uncertainty information, so there is a need for a method that can actually use ensemble forecast data to improve deterministic wind speed forecast

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  • Wind speed prediction method and device based on set data
  • Wind speed prediction method and device based on set data
  • Wind speed prediction method and device based on set data

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Embodiment Construction

[0059] It should be noted that, in the case of no conflict, the embodiments of the present invention and the features in the embodiments can be combined with each other.

[0060] In order to make the purpose and features of the present invention more comprehensible, the specific implementation manners of the present invention will be further described below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings. It should be noted that the drawings are all in a very simplified form and use imprecise ratios, which are only used to facilitate and clearly assist the purpose of illustrating the embodiments of the present invention.

[0061] The design idea of ​​the present invention is that: numerical weather prediction can usually capture a large weather system very well, but the reliability of the forecast under different parts of the system is often very different, for example, the forecast near the center of the cyclone , usually the reliability is relatively high, and the members of the...

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Abstract

The invention provides a wind speed prediction method and device based on ensemble data, and the method comprises the steps: correcting an ensemble prediction system error through a simple unary linear regression model, extracting probability features through employing the corrected ensemble prediction, and building a GBDT wind speed correction model through combining with a deterministic prediction factor. According to the method and device, the error of mesoscale deterministic numerical prediction is reduced, and the method and device have good practical application value.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the technical field of wind speed prediction, and in particular relates to a wind speed prediction method and device based on aggregated data. Background technique [0002] Wind has strong randomness and volatility, and is one of the most complex and difficult to predict elements in meteorological elements. Wind speed prediction is of great significance to weather forecasting, meteorological disaster prevention and renewable energy utilization. Deterministic numerical weather prediction, or single forecast, can only estimate the uncertainty of the atmosphere within a certain accuracy. Due to the highly nonlinear and chaotic nature of atmospheric motion, small errors in the initial values ​​of some numerical prediction models will amplify and lead to significant prediction errors during the prediction process, and the numerical equations used to represent atmospheric dynamics and physical processes also introduce More uncertain...

Claims

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Applications(China)
IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/04G06F17/11G06K9/62G06N3/04G06N3/08
CPCG06Q10/04G06F17/11G06N3/04G06N3/084G06F18/24323G06F18/214
Inventor 向婕周永吴媛
Owner 国能日新科技股份有限公司
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