Method for predicting icing thickness of high-voltage transmission line

Abstract

The invention relates to a method for predicting the icing thickness of a high-voltage transmission line. The method comprises the following steps: classifying historical icing thickness data into corresponding time intervals according to collected time nodes; applying three times of Hermite interpolation to supplement icing thickness data in a time interval lacking icing data to form icing complete data; and substituting the complete icing data into the metabolism GM (1, 1) model, and predicting the icing thickness of the high-voltage transmission line in the future time interval. According to the method for predicting the icing thickness of the high-voltage transmission line, detection does not need to be carried out at a certain fixed time node when the icing thickness data is measured manually, detection only needs to be carried out at any moment in a certain interval, and the data demand is small. And as the data which is not measured in the corresponding interval is relatively less, three times of Hermite interpolation are adopted for reasonable supplementation, so that the data which is not measured can be just reasonably filled.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the technical field of ice coating prediction, in particular to a method for predicting the ice coating thickness of a high-voltage transmission line. Background technique [0002] Research on the prediction of icing thickness of transmission lines can be roughly divided into two categories. The first category is mathematical and physical research through dynamic and thermodynamic experiments; the second category is statistical research through statistics of transmission line icing thickness laws. The research at the level of mathematical physics is based on physical equations, and many coefficients in the physical equations are mostly dependent on empirical values, and the mathematical meaning is not very clear. Some parameters in the mathematical physics prediction model are difficult to obtain through measurement in the actual line, so this type of model is more complex. It is difficult to be directly applied to the icing pr...

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Problems solved by technology

The research at the level of mathematical physics is based on physical equations, and many coefficients in the physical equations are mostly dependent on empirical values, and the mathematical meaning is not very clear. Some parameters in the mathematical physics prediction model are difficult to obtain through measurement in the actual line, so this type of model is more complex. Difficult to be directly applied to the icing prediction of actual transmission lines

The statistical level can be divided into the following aspects of research, using machine learning, extreme value prediction and other methods to predict the icing situation of overhead transmission lines in the future, such as transmission line icing prediction model based on rough sets, multivariable fuzzy Transmission line icing prediction model of control technology, etc., but these methods cannot be extended to other transmission lines with large geographical differences, and the prediction effect is not very ideal

In addition, among the statistical prediction models, the high-voltage transmission line icing prediction model based on time series prediction requires more and more complete historical data, which is relatively difficult to complete in actual measurement; at the same time, time series analysis is the The trend extends to the future, so it is impossible to predict the turning point of the time series, so forecasters need to correct the forecast results based on their own experience

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