Method for deciding oil gas drilling by net present value after geologic risk

Abstract

The invention relates to a method for utilizing geological risk post net present value for decision-making of oil and gas drilling, underground geological conditions and oil and gas accumulation conditions are firstly taken as parameters, the risk probability method is used for calculating the geological risk value, thus obtaining the corresponding geological success rate; the net present value with different discount rate and the risk net present value NPVrisk corresponding to the different geological success rate are calculated according to the taken parameters; when the NPVrisk is not less than zero, the decision that a single target can be drilled is made; a risk post investment portfolio optimization model is established, the risk net present value for portfolio target drilling decision-making is optimized, when the preferential target drilling portfolio meets the production requirements, the decision-making of the portfolio target drilling is feasible, otherwise, the decision-making is given up; the method only needs to stipulate one NPVrisk as a decision-making indicator, then the relative superiority of a plurality of items can be shown by comparison, thus allowing the risks and benefits and the actual exploration effects to be closer and greatly promoting the credibility of the investment portfolio.

Description

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AI Technical Summary

Benefits of technology

This patented technology allows researchers to evaluate how well an underground prospecting operation works by incorporating certain variables like technical indicators such as potential hazards associated with the operations (such as water), environmental conditions during construction work, etc., along their trajectory through different scenarios over time. By comparing these results against previous ones, they may identify areas where there could still remain unexplored due to current models being too conservative. These advancements make them ideal tools for optimizing future development plans while ensuring safety measures are taken effectively based upon available data from past studies.

Problems solved by technology

This technical problem addressed in the current method for evaluating an economically viable field involves selecting between different types of assets such as crude oil and natural gas during prospecting operations without considering their potential impact upon future development costs associated therewith. However, existing methods only consider factors like chance and cost per unit area, rather than comprehensive assessments about each asset's performance over its entire lifespan.

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