On-line energy forecasting system and method based on product ARIMA model

Abstract

An on-line energy forecast system based on a product ARIMA module and a method thereof belong to the field of steel industry energy forecast technology. The system comprises a local PLC, a PCS layer consisting of DCSs, a MES layer, an ERP management layer and a network system. The network system comprises an SCADA system arranged on a spot, a real time database server, a database server, an application server, a client workstation, an anti-virus database and a network which is connected with a computer, a controller and a sensor. The invention has the advantages that an applicable module grade is configured by a prediction algorithm parameter configuration module, which can realize that real time on-line forecast can be carried out on multiple data types comprising steady, non-stationary, seasonal fluctuation data.

Description

technical field

[0001] The invention belongs to the technical field of energy forecasting for iron and steel enterprises, and provides an online energy forecasting system and method based on the product ARIMA model, which can model and predict various data types including stationary, non-stationary, and seasonal fluctuations, and is mainly used for short-term and mid-term forecast. Background technique

[0002] The flow and fluctuation of energy in iron and steel enterprises are affected by many factors, complex and changeable, and difficult to grasp. To a large extent, it is a random and unstable state, and the factors that affect its fluctuation occur from time to time. It is impossible to use a single If a fixed model can achieve accurate prediction, if the latest information cannot be used to correct the model parameters, large prediction deviations will occur. Therefore, this paper proposes an online energy forecasting method based on the product ARIMA model.

[0003] ...

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