Real-time prediction method of mine gas concentration in short and medium terms based on radial basis function neural network integration

Abstract

The invention discloses a real-time prediction method of mine gas concentration in short and medium terms based on radial basis function neural network integration. The method comprises the following steps of: taking mine gas concentration data as a chaotic time series to construct a plurality of prediction sub-models of radial basis function (RBF) neural networks, and taking a weighted mean of synchronous prediction results of all prediction sub-models as an integrated prediction value to realize prediction model initializtion of RBF neural network integration; then realizing prediction of the gas concentration in the range of from a short term to a medium term through setting an integrated capacity parameter (the integrated capacity parameter is also equal to an RBF network prediction step-length); and obtaining a new prediction sub-model by utilizing an incremental training mode aiming at the characteristics that gas concentration information is continuously collected, and realizing updating of the RBF neural network integration according to a first in first out queue sequence so as to improve real-time prediction precision of the gas concentration, therefore, a proper compromise can be obtained between prediction range and prediction precision requirements, and the technical requirement on a mine gas information management system is satisfied.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the field of mine gas concentration prediction. In view of the real-time performance of a mine gas concentration monitoring system and the short-term to medium-term prediction requirements, the invention particularly relates to a medium- and short-term real-time prediction of mine gas concentration based on radial basis function neural network integration technology. method. Background technique [0002] The National "Energy Medium and Long-term Development Plan Outline (2004-2020)" determined that China will "adhere to an energy strategy with coal as the theme, electricity as the center, and comprehensive development of oil and gas and new energy." Obviously, coal and coal industry are still my country's energy themes and basic industries. With the growth of my country's demand for energy, coal production has also increased rapidly, bringing considerable economic benefits to the coal industry. However, accidents are frequent ...

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Problems solved by technology

Gas concentration information is continuously collected and transmitted. If the offline prediction model cannot be corrected and updated in time, it will inevitably affect the prediction accuracy of the entire model and eventually lead to prediction failure.

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